440 County Road 426 · Coyote, NM 87012

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1950 12 ac lot ↓ 59% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the beauty of Northern New Mexico with this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering over 1,200 sq ft in the peaceful community of Coyote. Situated on 1 acre of residential land plus 11.5 acres of agricultural acreage, this property offers incredible space, privacy, and opportunity. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views and wide open skies, this is an ideal setup for a full time residence, weekend retreat, hobby farm, or investment property. The home does need some TLC, giving buyers the chance to update and customize it to fit their vision. Plenty of room for horses, livestock, gardening, RVs, outdoor recreation, or future expansion. Located near Abiquiú Lake with easy acce

Key facts

• Mountain views
• 12.5 acre lot
• 4 parking spots

Tags

• 1 ACRE RESIDENTIAL LAND
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• EASY ACCESS TO HUNTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer; Shared well for water
• Home design: Single-story home; Shingle roof; Year built reported by owner
• Construction: Owner-reported lot size: 12.5 acres
• Exterior features: Shared well; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (14 x 7)
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (13 x 13); Main level bedroom (14 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: No interior steps; Not ADA compliant; Wood burning stove fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#348 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jemez Mountain Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 95 in NM (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Rio Arriba County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,171 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,596
• Equity at exit: $53,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $49,651
• Equity at exit: $83,085

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87012

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $117,939

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $124,900 Active 853-char remark
2. 2026-02-16
   price $195,000
3. 2026-02-16
   price $195,000
4. 2026-01-12
   listed $200,000 Active
5. 2025-10-31
   status Active
6. 2025-09-19
   price $215,000
7. 2025-07-25
   price $225,000
8. 2025-07-03
   price $279,000
9. 2025-05-26
   price $285,000
10. 2025-04-30
    listed $295,000 Active
11. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$2,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jemez Mountain Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501380
• Math proficiency: 10% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $31,109
• Composite: 19.31/100
• National rank: #13956
• State rank: #70 of 95 in NM

Livability — Coyote

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #26640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 290

Population outlook (Rio Arriba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,893 people
• By 2030: 35,060 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 31,035 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 27,056 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 19,056 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 12,332 · -66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 36% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Languages at home: 13% English-only · Spanish 84% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rio Arriba

• 2024 margin: D (+19.4) · D 58.6% · R 39.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.9pp · 2024: 19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.4 2020: D+33.6 2016: D+40.3 2012: D+52.6 2008: D+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-59.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Delisted — Santa Fe MLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $119,900 Santa Fe MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $124,900 Santa Fe MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $195,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $195,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $200,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $215,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $225,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $279,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $285,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $295,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +33.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.