1000 Carnegie Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$174,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot Est $179k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice Brick Ranch with 3 bedrooms , one and half baths with a good size closet in the master bedroom, single car garage. Fenced backyard. Freshly painted inside and outside . Newly installed water-proof laminated floor for Kitchen , dinning room, living room and hallway. Brand new roof, new range and new dishwasher. A new refrigerator will be as a gift at closing or for $1000 credit . Good location on the north side of Fayetteville. Convenient for shopping, restaurants, and hospital, just minutes drive from Fort Bragg and HWY 295. Great school systems from elementary to Pine Forest middle, Pine Forest high schools, and Methodist University.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Freshly painted
• New range

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW RANGE
• NEW DISHWASHER

Property features AI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($469/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Howard L Hall Elementary (math 40% / reading 49%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 600 students, 100% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $174k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,197 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
576 Braxton Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,011 (-3%)	2mo	$175,000	$173	77
1017 Appalachin Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,093 (+5%)	18mo	$170,000	$156	67
1161 Andrews Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+15%)	14mo	$195,000	$163	58
629 Winthrop Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,087 (+4%)	2mo	$194,000	$178	58
6713 Winthrop Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+5%)	12mo	$194,500	$178	56
6740 Winthrop Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+7%)	8mo	$155,000	$139	56
6569 Cushing Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+8%)	10mo	$188,000	$167	44
6316 Chagrin Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,163 (+12%)	7mo	$200,000	$172	44
616 Woodburn Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,101 (+6%)	17mo	$192,000	$174	43
6546 Winthrop Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	945 (-9%)	14mo	$156,000	$165	40
625 Winthrop Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+13%)	13mo	$157,000	$134	35
618 Woodburn Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	897 (-14%)	18mo	$156,135	$174	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,014
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-20,696
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $88	+0% $39	+5% $-10	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-18	+0% $39	+5% $96	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $83	base $39	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1009 Louisburg Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,550	$1.14	25d	1	0.10mi
1017 Xavier Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,595	$1.14	25d	1	0.12mi
6702 Agnes Scott Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	954	$1,200	$1.26	25d	1	0.15mi
806 Carnegie Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,400	$1.25	25d	1	0.18mi
1018 Appalachin Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	0.23mi
549 Braxton Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	950	$1,075	$1.13	25d	1	0.31mi
557 Braxton Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	950	$1,075	$1.13	23d	1	0.32mi
561 Braxton Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	2	0.32mi
575 Braxton Blvd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1001	$1,295	$1.29	15d	1	0.39mi
6637 Abbey Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	753	$895	$1.19	25d	1	0.47mi
3405 Revolution Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,587	$1.62	15d	7	0.51mi
1527 McArthur Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	864	$925	$1.07	25d	1	0.55mi
1547 Center St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	802	$850	$1.06	25d	1	0.66mi
1725 Cumberland Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	25d	1	0.68mi
633 Winthrop Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.72mi
644 Clayton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,100	$0.96	25d	1	0.81mi
5327 Chesapeake Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 205 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 204 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $174,000
18. 2025-12-02
    price $179,000
19. 2025-11-07
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2007-11-08
    soldstatus $80,000
21. 2005-10-24
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$140/yr (+$12/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$2,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+152.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $174,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $179,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $185,000 TMLS
• 2007-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +55.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.