1537 E Charlton St · Republic, MO 65738

$270,679

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 6,970 sqft lot $201/sqft · 9% below area Est $299k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed 1,350 square foot home offers the perfect balance of comfort, efficiency, and functionality. With three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a rare 3-car garage, it's ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those looking to downsize without compromise. Step into an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room--perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. * Owner/Agent. Images are for representation purposes only. Price is subject to change without notice. *

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcculloch Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 454 students, 34% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,527 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,013
• List price: $270,679
• Delta: -9.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1479 E Drayton Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-1%)	2mo	$249,900	$187	91
1538 S Montgomery Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-1%)	2mo	$259,900	$195	91
1214 E Habersham St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,347 (0%)	4mo	$265,985	$197	91
1188 E Abercorn St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,347 (0%)	4mo	$265,585	$197	90
1559 E Charlton St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+9%)	2mo	$285,301	$194	83
1331 Abercorn St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+7%)	3mo	$259,000	$180	83
1537 S Olde Savannah Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+6%)	4mo	$265,000	$185	80
1164 E Abercorn St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+9%)	1mo	$269,128	$183	77
1218 E Abercorn St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+9%)	2mo	$269,904	$183	76
1213 Abercorn St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+9%)	6mo	$269,944	$183	73
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$185	68
1522 S Bull Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+12%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,742
• Equity at exit: $40,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-60,021
• Equity at exit: $23,403

Cash invested: $75,790 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,060/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $240,662

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-114	+0% $-207	+5% $-301	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-291	+0% $-207	+5% $-124	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-139	base $-207	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,670
• Closing costs: $8,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	15d	1	0.06mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	45d	1	1.23mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	1.28mi
1338 S Marseilles Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,575	$1.04	45d	1	1.37mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   This thoughtfully designed 1,350 square foot home offers the perfect balance of comfort, efficiency, and functionality. With three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a rare 3-car garage, it's ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those looking to downsize without compromise. Step into an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room--perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. * Owner/Agent. Images are for representation purposes only. Price is subject to change without notice. *

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $270,679 Active 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   This thoughtfully designed 1,350 square foot home offers the perfect balance of comfort, efficiency, and functionality. With three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a rare 3-car garage, it's ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those looking to downsize without compromise. Step into an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room--perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. * Owner/Agent. Images are for representation purposes only. Price is subject to change without notice. *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,162
• − Property taxes: −$4,060
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$7,874
• Taxable loss: −$7,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $-754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Listed $270,679 SOMO

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $252 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.