517 Cypress Creek Run · St. Cloud, FL 34771

$415,375

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Land

Built 2026 5,663 sqft lot $9/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. New construction home with 1715 square feet on one-story including 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open living area. Enjoy an open kitchen with 42" shaker-style cabinets, Quartz countertops, Samsung stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island, fully open to the dining café and gathering room. The living area, laundry room, and baths include luxury wood vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Enjoy a covered lanai, 2-car garage, custom-fit window blinds, architectural shingles, energy-efficient insulation and windows, and a full builder warranty * * * Please note - Virtual Tour/Photos showcases the home layout;

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-676 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1378 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,562 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-110,296
• Equity at exit: $61,934

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-151,273
• Equity at exit: $35,914

Cash invested: $116,305 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34771

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1378
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,178
• Tax from tax record: −$429 /mo · $5,148/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,531

Max offer price $296,019

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-441	-5% $-558	+0% $-676	+5% $-793	+10% $-911
Rent	-10% $-887	-5% $-781	+0% $-676	+5% $-570	+10% $-464
Rate	-1.0pp $-466	-0.5pp $-570	base $-676	+0.5pp $-783	+1.0pp $-893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,844
• Closing costs: $12,461
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
358 Cadberry Pl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1594	$2,200	$1.38	15d	1	0.33mi
551 Windy Willow Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,550	$1.21	24d	1	0.39mi
5846 Herder Rd Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1890	$2,650	$1.40	24d	1	0.54mi
5824 Bullock Pl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,149	$1.29	5d	1	0.55mi
5788 Freshwater Canyon Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,250	$1.32	15d	1	0.56mi
5837 Beefmaster Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,075	$1.25	24d	1	0.58mi
5778 Waterman Path Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,295	$1.18	24d	1	0.62mi
5752 Anders Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.62mi
419 Conway Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,750	$1.44	8d	1	0.65mi
764 Preston Cove Dr Unit 1 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,100	$1.44	24d	1	0.75mi
588 Preston Cove Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,250	$1.45	3d	1	0.75mi
564 Preston Cove Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1551	$2,080	$1.34	24d	1	0.78mi
1166 Silo Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	3.0	1856	$2,499	$1.35	17d	1	0.85mi
5762 Cattle Ranch Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,400	$1.16	24d	1	0.92mi
5762 Cattle Ranch Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,400	$1.16	8d	1	0.92mi
5777 Haystack Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	2226	$2,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.92mi
5741 Haystack Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,450	$1.27	3d	1	0.98mi
1217 Grassland Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,900	$1.33	24d	1	1.02mi
1479 Silver Maple Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,312	$1.40	2d	6	1.04mi
399 Tanis Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,375	$1.29	24d	1	1.08mi
600 Talisi Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,450	$1.46	5d	1	1.12mi
5580 Vigo Loop Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2021	$2,849	$1.41	15d	1	1.17mi
234 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	24d	1	1.26mi
18 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1982	$2,400	$1.21	22d	1	1.27mi
5566 Sabal Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2105	$2,700	$1.28	15d	1	1.28mi
5566 Sabal Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,699	$1.27	8d	1	1.28mi
504 Enaya St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$3,100	$1.70	24d	1	1.29mi
5686 Stockade Blvd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$2,150	$1.44	8d	1	1.35mi
94 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,450	$1.23	8d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $415,375
2. 2026-04-29
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,148 · $429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,148 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,267
• − Property taxes: −$5,148
• − Insurance: −$2,077
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$12,084
• Taxable loss: −$15,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,771
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,257
• Household income: $97,415
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.44%
• Current HPI: 290.3095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $415,375 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid