2569 New York 30 · Tupper Lake, NY 12986

$92,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2006 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This log cabin will make a great Adirondack vacation or sportsmans camp. Being close to a multitude of hiking/snowmobile trails, mountains, lakes, ponds and rivers, it makes a great home base for the outdoor adventurer. There is plenty of room to add a garage or park your camper. Just minutes away from The Wild Center, village shopping and dining and just 30 miles from Lake Placid. This property is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Shed
• Electricity
• Private 1.3 acres

Tags

• PRIVATE 1.3 ACRES
• ELECTRICITY
• INTERNET
• WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($753/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Tupper Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#661 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tupper Lake Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #561 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $92k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,428 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $19,803
• Equity at exit: $46,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $59,336
• Equity at exit: $75,635

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12986

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $95	+0% $63	+5% $31	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $28	+0% $63	+5% $98	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $86	base $63	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $92,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $92,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $92,000 Active 891-char remark
17. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $45,108 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This log cabin will make a great Adirondack vacation or sportsmans camp. Being close to a multitude of hiking/snowmobile trails, mountains, lakes, ponds and rivers, it makes a great home base for the outdoor adventurer. There is plenty of room to add a garage or park your camper. Just minutes away from The Wild Center, village shopping and dining and just 30 miles from Lake Placid. This property is being sold AS IS.

18. 2021-03-26
    listed $52,500 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This log cabin will make a great Adirondack vacation or sportsmans camp. Being close to a multitude of hiking/snowmobile trails, mountains, lakes, ponds and rivers, it makes a great home base for the outdoor adventurer. There is plenty of room to add a garage or park your camper. Just minutes away from The Wild Center, village shopping and dining and just 30 miles from Lake Placid. This property is being sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$849
• − Management: −$849
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable loss: −$756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the siding, roof, and flooring, as well as painting. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage
• Major roof — Missing shingles
• Major flooring — Exposed subfloor
• Major interior walls — Paint peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both repair and replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and weather protection
• Both repair and replace flooring — Improves living conditions and safety
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and can mask damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and weather protection ↑
• Both repair and replace flooring — Improves living conditions and safety ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and can mask damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tupper Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629160
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,543
• Composite: 29.18/100
• National rank: #6572
• State rank: #561 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tupper Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #661
• US rank: #12343

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,304
• Population (ZIP): 5,304

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 281.1979
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $92,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $45,108 ACVMLS
• 2021-03-26 Listed $52,500 ACVMLS