144 Greenbriar Rd · Milton, KY 40045

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1979 0.25 ac lot Est $128k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Trimble County (rural): math 14% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #151 of 165 in KY (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $388 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Trimble County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $153,810 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,232
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Greenbriar Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	952 (+2%)	11mo	$50,000	$53	86
60 Greenbriar Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	960 (+3%)	16mo	$153,000	$159	78
149 Greenbriar Rd	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+7%)	15mo	$137,000	$137	75
8219 N Us-421	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+11%)	20mo	$85,000	$82	59
214 Tilley Ln	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,047 (+12%)	19mo	$169,900	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,609
• Equity at exit: $48,116

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $36,594
• Equity at exit: $59,416

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40045

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $171	+0% $116	+5% $61	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $56	+0% $116	+5% $177	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $157	base $116	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-16
   listed $159,000 Pending 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$290
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trimble County
• NCES district ID: 2105610
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,287
• Composite: 19.35/100
• National rank: #8790
• State rank: #151 of 165 in KY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #13828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,118

Population outlook (Trimble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,783 people
• By 2030: 8,694 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 8,345 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 7,711 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 5,922 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 4,016 · -54.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trimble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.7% · R 77.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.24%
• Current HPI: 186.5524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B