413 West Oaks Dr · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$144,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2017 1.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 413 West Oaks, a 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offering 1,144 square feet of living space on a spacious 1.75-acre lot. Built in 2017, this property provides newer construction and a functional layout, making it a strong opportunity for an investor or buyer. The living room flows into the kitchen, creating an open and practical living area, and the bedrooms are generously sized. The property includes a covered carport for convenient parking and additional utility. While the home does need some work, the combination of acreage, newer build year, and layout offers potential for renovation or investment. With plenty of space and room to improve, this property is ready for its n

Key facts

• 1.75 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2017

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 3 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water: private well; Sewer: aerobic septic and public sewer (not connected at lot)
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; HardiPlank-type exterior; Resale condition
• Construction: Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed; Asphalt road access; Property located outside city limits; Lot between one and three acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range; Vented exhaust fan; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Split bedrooms (bedrooms separated by living space)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split-bedroom layout; Tub with shower; Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Indoor laundry room; Electric water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $144k implies a 803% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,332 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,365
• Equity at exit: $21,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-649
• Equity at exit: $12,494

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $144,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,500 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,500 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,500 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,500 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,500 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,500 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $148,500 739-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    price $149,300 739-char remark
19. 2026-04-29
    price $149,400 739-char remark
20. 2026-04-20
    listed $149,500 Active 739-char remark
21. 2026-04-20
    historical
22. 2026-04-13
    price $152,300
23. 2026-04-07
    price $152,400
24. 2026-03-31
    price $152,500
25. 2026-03-17
    status Active
26. 2026-03-13
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2026-03-09
    listed $154,500 Active
28. 2026-03-09
    historical
29. 2026-03-02
    price $158,500
30. 2026-02-24
    price $159,200
31. 2026-02-16
    price $159,300
32. 2026-02-11
    listed $159,500 Active
33. 2020-05-19
    status Pending
34. 2020-05-19
    status Active
35. 2020-03-21
    historical
36. 2019-12-02
    soldstatus
37. 2019-11-14
    status Pending
38. 2019-11-14
    historical
39. 2019-10-11
    price $115,900
40. 2019-05-16
    price $116,900
41. 2019-02-24
    status Active
42. 2019-01-19
    historical
43. 2018-12-26
    listed $119,900 Active
44. 2018-12-22
    listed $119,900 Active
45. 2018-07-06
    soldstatus
46. 2018-02-15
    listed $119,000
47. 2017-06-12
    soldstatus $16,000
48. 2016-08-18
    listed $17,000
49. 2012-09-10
    soldstatus $29,500
50. 2012-09-07
    listed $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,370 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable loss: −$585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $1,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+389.8% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $144,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $148,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $149,300 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $149,400 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $149,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $152,300 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $152,400 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $152,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-13 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $154,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $158,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $159,200 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $159,300 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $159,500 CTXMLS
• 2020-05-19 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2020-05-19 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2020-03-21 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-14 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-14 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2019-10-11 Price Changed $115,900 CTXMLS
• 2019-05-16 Price Changed $116,900 CTXMLS
• 2019-02-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2019-01-19 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-12-26 Listed $119,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-12-22 Listed $119,900 CBMLS
• 2018-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-15 Listed $119,000 CBMLS
• 2017-06-12 Sold (MLS) $16,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-08-18 Listed $17,000 CTXMLS
• 2012-09-10 Sold (MLS) $29,500 CTXMLS
• 2012-09-07 Listed $29,500 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,370 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.