6002 15th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1979 7,700 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity to add your personal touch and make it your own. With a functional layout and plenty of potential, this property is ready for updates while still providing comfortable everyday living. The spacious backyard includes two storage sheds, giving you extra room for tools, hobbies, or seasonal storage. Whether you're looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this property has plenty of possibilities to explore.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Two storage sheds
• 7,700 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Combination foundation; Built area above grade: 1,176
• Exterior features: Private yard; City street frontage; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-266/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 450 students, 59% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,057 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-26,739
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-29,216
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,070/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $146,078

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $20	+0% $-22	+5% $-65	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-76	+0% $-22	+5% $32	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $16	base $-22	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	0.22mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	45d	1	0.36mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	15d	1	0.45mi
5818 8th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.46mi
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	45d	1	0.49mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	23d	1	0.50mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.51mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	23d	1	0.51mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	23d	1	0.51mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	45d	1	0.51mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	23d	1	0.53mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	23d	1	0.53mi
2102 W Loop 289 Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	702	$890	$1.27	45d	1	0.60mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.66mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	0.67mi
2104 La Salle Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,250	$1.69	45d	1	0.75mi
5522 13th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	15d	1	0.76mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	23d	1	0.79mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	45d	1	0.79mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	46d	1	0.80mi
6223 24th St Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,150	$1.30	45d	1	0.82mi
221 Grover Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,295	$1.09	15d	1	0.83mi
5503 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,500	$1.14	23d	1	0.87mi
6509 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1044	$925	$0.89	45d	1	0.88mi
5525 4th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	835	$795	$0.95	46d	2	0.90mi
5525 4th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$850	$1.11	45d	1	0.90mi
2702 Frankford Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$888	$0.94	45d	1	1.02mi
204 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	15d	1	1.03mi
6306 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,200	$0.91	45d	1	1.05mi
5435 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	1.13mi
5442 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,349	$1.05	15d	1	1.15mi
6801 19th St Unit 179 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.15mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	45d	1	1.17mi
5230 14th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,350	$0.93	15d	1	1.17mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	1.18mi
6333 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,350	$1.28	15d	1	1.19mi
5424 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,150	$0.95	45d	1	1.20mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	15d	1	1.23mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	15d	1	1.23mi
5414 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,299	$1.07	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $150,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $150,000 Active
15. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,070
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $150,000 LARMLS
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,070 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.