1005 Jernigan St · Commerce, TX 75428

$139,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1941 0.35 ac lot $63/sqft · 36% below area Est $219k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful property in the heart of downtown Commerce! Step inside this charming blank canvas, full of character, and potential! Whether you’re looking for a great investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home has great bones and is ready for your personal touches! The Kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, electric range, dishwasher, built in microwave, and a cozy breakfast area that’s perfect for busy mornings with the kids. Enter into the warm and inviting living room! It centers around a lovely wood-burning brick fireplace with raised hearth that adds to its charm! You will love the original hardwood floors that remain in several rooms! The primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet, an en-suite bathroom that also connects to another room, and an outside entry! The layout is truly unique which is typical to this era of home! There are multiple possibilities for the primary suite if you prefer the large room as a huge family room or game room! The primary bath is a showstopper, completely updated with a dual sink vanity and large walk-in shower! The secondary bathroom is also updated with tile shower and sliding glass door entry! At the rear of the home you will find the perfect space for a home office or mud room conjoined with the laundry area giving you extra functionality and convenience! Outside, enjoy a large backyard complete with dog run, a two-car carport, and two extra rooms that can be transformed into whatever you need, storage, workshop, or a hobby to fix up for your very own man cave! So many possibilities all the way around, there is even potential to convert to multi-family and with some renovation turn into a duplex based on zoning. Don’t miss this one, it won’t last long!

Key facts

• Huge walk-in closet
• Cozy breakfast area
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• COZY BREAKFAST AREA
• WOOD-BURNING BRICK FIREPLACE
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• UPDATED DUAL SINK VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,747
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -36.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Bonham St	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,286 (+4%)	22mo	$254,900	$112	50
1306 Arp St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,236 (+1%)	14mo	$279,900	$125	49
1508 Sycamore St	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,026 (-8%)	9mo	$164,500	$81	47
1503 Bonham St	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,356 (+7%)	23mo	$95,000	$40	43
1501 Pecan St	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (-15%)	14mo	$229,900	$122	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-18,202
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,639
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75428

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,855/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Sycamore St Unit 800-106 Commerce, TX	4.0	4.0	1575	$1,675	$1.06	43d	1	0.48mi
1215 Bois D Arc St Commerce, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,800	$0.87	12d	1	0.67mi
1215 Bois D Arc St Commerce, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,800	$0.87	11d	1	0.67mi
1705 Campbell St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	2876	$1,950	$0.68	17d	1	0.88mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1608 Bois D'arc Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,550	$0.93	16d	1	0.91mi
600 Maple St Commerce, TX	4.0	4.0	1400	$800	$0.57	24d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $139,900 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    price $149,900 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Beautiful property in the heart of downtown Commerce! Step inside this charming blank canvas, full of character, and potential! Whether you’re looking for a great investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home has great bones and is ready for your personal touches! The Kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, electric range, dishwasher, built in microwave, and a cozy breakfast area that’s perfect for busy mornings with the kids. Enter into the warm and inviting living room! It centers around a lovely wood-burning brick fireplace with raised hearth that adds to its charm! You will love the original hardwood floors that remain in several rooms! The primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet, an en-suite bathroom that also connects to another room, and an outside entry! The layout is truly unique which is typical to this era of home! There are multiple possibilities for the primary suite if you prefer the large room as a huge family room or game room! The primary bath is a showstopper, completely updated with a dual sink vanity and large walk-in shower! The secondary bathroom is also updated with tile shower and sliding glass door entry! At the rear of the home you will find the perfect space for a home office or mud room conjoined with the laundry area giving you extra functionality and convenience! Outside, enjoy a large backyard complete with dog run, a two-car carport, and two extra rooms that can be transformed into whatever you need, storage, workshop, or a hobby to fix up for your very own man cave! So many possibilities all the way around, there is even potential to convert to multi-family and with some renovation turn into a duplex based on zoning. Don’t miss this one, it won’t last long!

17. 2025-10-28
    price $159,900 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Beautiful property in the heart of downtown Commerce! Step inside this charming blank canvas, full of character, and potential! Whether you’re looking for a great investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home has great bones and is ready for your personal touches! The Kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, electric range, dishwasher, built in microwave, and a cozy breakfast area that’s perfect for busy mornings with the kids. Enter into the warm and inviting living room! It centers around a lovely wood-burning brick fireplace with raised hearth that adds to its charm! You will love the original hardwood floors that remain in several rooms! The primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet, an en-suite bathroom that also connects to another room, and an outside entry! The layout is truly unique which is typical to this era of home! There are multiple possibilities for the primary suite if you prefer the large room as a huge family room or game room! The primary bath is a showstopper, completely updated with a dual sink vanity and large walk-in shower! The secondary bathroom is also updated with tile shower and sliding glass door entry! At the rear of the home you will find the perfect space for a home office or mud room conjoined with the laundry area giving you extra functionality and convenience! Outside, enjoy a large backyard complete with dog run, a two-car carport, and two extra rooms that can be transformed into whatever you need, storage, workshop, or a hobby to fix up for your very own man cave! So many possibilities all the way around, there is even potential to convert to multi-family and with some renovation turn into a duplex based on zoning. Don’t miss this one, it won’t last long!

18. 2025-09-12
    listed $169,900 Active 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Beautiful property in the heart of downtown Commerce! Step inside this charming blank canvas, full of character, and potential! Whether you’re looking for a great investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home has great bones and is ready for your personal touches! The Kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, electric range, dishwasher, built in microwave, and a cozy breakfast area that’s perfect for busy mornings with the kids. Enter into the warm and inviting living room! It centers around a lovely wood-burning brick fireplace with raised hearth that adds to its charm! You will love the original hardwood floors that remain in several rooms! The primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet, an en-suite bathroom that also connects to another room, and an outside entry! The layout is truly unique which is typical to this era of home! There are multiple possibilities for the primary suite if you prefer the large room as a huge family room or game room! The primary bath is a showstopper, completely updated with a dual sink vanity and large walk-in shower! The secondary bathroom is also updated with tile shower and sliding glass door entry! At the rear of the home you will find the perfect space for a home office or mud room conjoined with the laundry area giving you extra functionality and convenience! Outside, enjoy a large backyard complete with dog run, a two-car carport, and two extra rooms that can be transformed into whatever you need, storage, workshop, or a hobby to fix up for your very own man cave! So many possibilities all the way around, there is even potential to convert to multi-family and with some renovation turn into a duplex based on zoning. Don’t miss this one, it won’t last long!

19. 2022-11-01
    soldstatus
20. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus Closed 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Spacious well maintained three bedroom 2 bath home located on quiet tree lined street. Recent upgrades include painting, newer roof, remodeled bath rooms and foundation leveling. Original hardwood flooring in living room and dining room. Nice brick wood burning fireplace in Living Room. Large tree covered fenced back yard with covered patio. This home would be great for the investor who wants to use it as a college rental or the family that is looking for a large backyard where there is plenty of room to entertain and children can play. Conveniently located within a few miles from Texas A&M University in Commerce.

21. 2022-10-11
    status Pending 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Spacious well maintained three bedroom 2 bath home located on quiet tree lined street. Recent upgrades include painting, newer roof, remodeled bath rooms and foundation leveling. Original hardwood flooring in living room and dining room. Nice brick wood burning fireplace in Living Room. Large tree covered fenced back yard with covered patio. This home would be great for the investor who wants to use it as a college rental or the family that is looking for a large backyard where there is plenty of room to entertain and children can play. Conveniently located within a few miles from Texas A&M University in Commerce.

22. 2022-09-30
    historical Active Option Contract 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Spacious well maintained three bedroom 2 bath home located on quiet tree lined street. Recent upgrades include painting, newer roof, remodeled bath rooms and foundation leveling. Original hardwood flooring in living room and dining room. Nice brick wood burning fireplace in Living Room. Large tree covered fenced back yard with covered patio. This home would be great for the investor who wants to use it as a college rental or the family that is looking for a large backyard where there is plenty of room to entertain and children can play. Conveniently located within a few miles from Texas A&M University in Commerce.

23. 2022-09-27
    listed $175,000 Active 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Spacious well maintained three bedroom 2 bath home located on quiet tree lined street. Recent upgrades include painting, newer roof, remodeled bath rooms and foundation leveling. Original hardwood flooring in living room and dining room. Nice brick wood burning fireplace in Living Room. Large tree covered fenced back yard with covered patio. This home would be great for the investor who wants to use it as a college rental or the family that is looking for a large backyard where there is plenty of room to entertain and children can play. Conveniently located within a few miles from Texas A&M University in Commerce.

24. 2022-09-16
    historical
25. 2022-09-06
    price $185,000
26. 2022-08-29
    status Active
27. 2022-08-25
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2022-08-18
    price $194,900
29. 2022-07-29
    status Active
30. 2022-07-15
    price $209,900
31. 2022-02-23
    price $218,900
32. 2022-01-24
    listed $225,000 Active
33. 2011-08-29
    soldstatus Closed
34. 2011-07-29
    status Pending
35. 2011-07-09
    status Active
36. 2011-05-06
    status Pending
37. 2011-03-22
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,855 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,855 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$4,855
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$320
• After-tax cash flow: $1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,295
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7977
• State rank: #687 of 826 in TX

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #13696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 11,531
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,531
• Household income: $51,424
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.08%
• Current HPI: 289.0436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2022-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-10-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-09-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-08-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $194,900 NTREIS
• 2022-07-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2022-02-23 Price Changed $218,900 NTREIS
• 2022-01-24 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2011-08-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2011-07-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-07-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2011-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-03-22 Listed $30,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,855 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.