9967 Lanier Dr · Moline Acres, MO 63136

$72,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1954 6,425 sqft lot $43/sqft · 45% below area Est $133k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious ranch home with tons of potential! Home boasts large rooms, one car garage, and so much more! Home sold as-is. Seller will do no inspections or make any repairs.

Key facts

• 6,425 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 10.8% in Moline Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#480 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,713 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.33%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,519
• List price: $72,900
• Delta: -44.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9952 Noble Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-12%)	2mo	$74,900	$50	71
2333 Gardner Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,520 (-11%)	9mo	$120,000	$79	70
10241 Royal Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+2%)	7mo	$173,500	$99	63
10112 Castle Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,795 (+5%)	11mo	$164,000	$91	62
2224 Lovett Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (+10%)	3mo	$196,999	$104	56
10352 Baron Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,776 (+4%)	10mo	$99,900	$56	55
10216 Pannell Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,829 (+7%)	6mo	$172,500	$94	52
2221 Duchess Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,802 (+5%)	11mo	$154,900	$86	52
9845 Lewis And Clark Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+13%)	10mo	$129,900	$67	48
10401 Baron Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,668 (-3%)	6mo	$79,900	$48	42
9677 Weyburn Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,878 (+10%)	9mo	$99,000	$53	38
10243 Pannell Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,950 (+14%)	8mo	$198,000	$102	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $47,661
• Equity at exit: $36,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $124,541
• Equity at exit: $58,295

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,210/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $537	+0% $516	+5% $495	+10% $475
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $460	+0% $516	+5% $572	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $534	base $516	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	25d	1	0.14mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	0.30mi
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	20d	1	0.46mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	25d	1	0.63mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	25d	1	0.63mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	45d	1	0.76mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.78mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	45d	1	0.80mi
10331 Ewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1658	$1,540	$0.93	5d	1	0.95mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	16d	1	0.98mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	1.05mi
1026 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,350	$0.77	0d	1	1.16mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	45d	1	1.17mi
10606 Kilbourn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,395	$0.66	45d	1	1.18mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	0d	1	1.25mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	45d	1	1.25mi
1238 Hoyt Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	23d	1	1.25mi
1915 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,500	$0.86	5d	1	1.28mi
8883 Saint Cyr Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1632	$1,200	$0.74	45d	1	1.29mi
8883 Saint Cyr Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1632	$1,200	$0.74	0d	1	1.29mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	17d	1	1.40mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.43mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $72,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with tons of potential! Home boasts large rooms, one car garage, and so much more! Home sold as-is. Seller will do no inspections or make any repairs.

9. 2026-04-17
   listed $72,900 Active 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with tons of potential! Home boasts large rooms, one car garage, and so much more! Home sold as-is. Seller will do no inspections or make any repairs.

10. 2025-02-21
    status Pending
11. 2025-01-07
    listed $184,900 Active
12. 1989-07-01
    soldstatus
13. 1981-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,210 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,210 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$2,210
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $5,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,301
• After-tax cash flow: $4,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moline Acres

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moline Acres, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-60.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $72,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $184,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,210 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.