1761 W Johnston · Hemet, CA 92545

$257,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2009 4,356 sqft lot Est $194k · 33% over $185/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifull 3 bedrooms 2 baths Home built in 2009. Located in the Sierra Dawn Community.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is one of 100 units in the community
• HOA & community: Part of the Sierra Dawn association; Monthly association fee of $185; Senior community; Community street lighting

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: One-story layout; Entry at front door; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation; Year built reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Manufactured home; No pool; No landscaping

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the main level; Single-level home with front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($197/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $257k implies a 634% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,658 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
942 Santa Elena	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,503 (-1%)	0mo	$144,000	$96	88
1655 Vista Grande Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$158,000	$110	80
1778 Burr Oak Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$190,000	$132	76
1631 Bella Vis	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$147,115	$102	75
1207 Sorrel Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-3%)	1mo	$198,000	$135	70
930 S Santa Victoria	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-10%)	1mo	$140,000	$103	70
575 S Lyon Ave #34	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$62,900	$44	67
1279 Sorrel Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$185,000	$128	66
1232 Brentwood Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$159	65
1288 Lodgepole	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$219,000	$152	64
2683 Chamise Way	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+6%)	1mo	$265,000	$166	56
2205 acacia #62	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-7%)	1mo	$73,000	$52	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,815
• Equity at exit: $38,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-25,029
• Equity at exit: $22,221

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $257,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $89	+0% $16	+5% $-56	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-75	+0% $16	+5% $108	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $82	base $16	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Santa Lucia Dr Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	44d	1	0.26mi
101 San Mateo Cir Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,790	$1.55	0d	1	0.29mi
1521 W Westmont Ave Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1197	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	0.32mi
2099 Rosemary Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,700	$1.23	8d	1	0.44mi
1955 Silver Oak Way Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,250	$1.71	44d	1	0.46mi
1241 Sandlewood Dr Hemet, CA	2.0	1.5	1504	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.49mi
1096 Burton St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.5	1477	$2,595	$1.76	0d	1	0.51mi
683 Jonquil St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,448	$2.13	25d	1	0.51mi
471 Whitney Dr Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,800	$1.66	6d	1	0.54mi
1850 Amberwood Dr Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,561	$1.33	44d	1	0.57mi
611 S Palm Ave Unit K Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$1,895	$1.51	8d	1	0.58mi
876 W Whittier Ave Unit 878 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1127	$2,150	$1.91	25d	1	0.63mi
2971 Pembroke Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1572	$3,000	$1.91	19d	1	0.74mi
828 Greenwich Ct Hemet, CA	3.0	3.0	1977	$2,700	$1.37	19d	1	0.75mi
795 Cameo Ave Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,900	$1.81	16d	1	0.76mi
1025 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,320	$2.61	3d	8	0.76mi
2098 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,475	$2.77	0d	1	0.79mi
1460 Caprice Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	3.0	1898	$3,250	$1.71	25d	1	0.80mi
735 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1202	$2,400	$2.00	44d	1	0.82mi
3080 Hampton Ave Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1552	$2,695	$1.74	8d	1	0.82mi
1354 Jasmine Way Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	44d	1	0.88mi
415 S Tahquitz Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,900	$1.64	19d	1	0.89mi
716 Robert Dr Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,300	$1.59	6d	1	0.93mi
363 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	5d	1	1.02mi
363 S Gilbert St Unit B Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	15d	1	1.02mi
1315 W Latham Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,550	$1.90	44d	1	1.12mi
2971 Peach Tree St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,395	$1.31	44d	1	1.18mi
853 Douglas Ct Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,850	$1.61	5d	1	1.22mi
860 Douglas Ct Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,850	$1.66	19d	1	1.26mi
310 S Carmalita St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	2100	$3,200	$1.52	44d	1	1.40mi
640 Vista del Monte Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,650	$1.79	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $185 · $2,220/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 87-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $257,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$4,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$988
• After-tax cash flow: $1,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+756.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $257,000 CRMLS
• 1990-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.