1711 W Paisley Dr · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,214 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2012 6,282 sqft lot $181/sqft · 9% below area Est $441k · 9% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Newer dishwasher
• 6,282 sq ft lot

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• SEPARATE LIVING DINING AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-688 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (45.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,733 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,597
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -9.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1711 W Paisley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,215 (0%)	0mo	$395,000	$178	100
35401 N Thurber Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,215 (0%)	0mo	$422,000	$191	95
2057 W Briana Way	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,325 (+5%)	1mo	$425,000	$183	78
887 W Hereford Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,209 (-0%)	1mo	$495,000	$224	77
22837 E Starflower Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,379 (+8%)	1mo	$528,000	$222	59
2069 W Kenton Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,899 (-14%)	0mo	$379,000	$200	57
891 W Ayrshire Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (-8%)	1mo	$465,000	$230	55
22688 E Diana Way	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,539 (+15%)	1mo	$550,000	$217	37
35352 N Shorthorn Trl	0.61mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+15%)	1mo	$585,000	$231	37
22686 E Starflower Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,546 (+15%)	1mo	$515,000	$202	34
22674 E Starflower Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,546 (+15%)	1mo	$574,199	$226	33
22655 E Starflower Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,546 (+15%)	1mo	$599,999	$236	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $173,805
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $545,935
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,321/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,068

Max offer price $278,373

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-462	-5% $-575	+0% $-688	+5% $-801	+10% $-914
Rent	-10% $-862	-5% $-775	+0% $-688	+5% $-601	+10% $-514
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-586	base $-688	+0.5pp $-792	+1.0pp $-897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35244 N Zachary Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,275	$1.53	45d	1	0.16mi
1345 W Corriente Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	0.17mi
1274 W Jamaica Hope Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1629	$1,995	$1.22	25d	1	0.21mi
1278 W Stephanie Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	1924	$2,100	$1.09	6d	1	0.25mi
2005 W Aston Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	1.5	2554	$2,350	$0.92	6d	1	0.26mi
35828 N Zachary Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2256	$1,789	$0.79	25d	1	0.28mi
2027 W Kenton Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,091	$1.21	23d	1	0.28mi
1094 W Jamaica Hope Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2640	$2,100	$0.80	45d	1	0.32mi
23074 E Diana Way Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,195	$1.17	45d	1	0.38mi
878 W Ayrshire Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	2026	$2,315	$1.14	0d	1	0.50mi
22813 E Starflower Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.5	2694	$2,999	$1.11	6d	1	0.52mi
2541 W Canyon Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2485	$2,100	$0.85	19d	1	0.55mi
2049 W Gold Mine Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1585	$2,085	$1.32	6d	1	0.56mi
2521 W Desert Spring Way San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	2.5	2067	$2,175	$1.05	25d	1	0.59mi
1277 W Busa Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2136	$4,000	$1.87	6d	1	0.61mi
763 W Brangus Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,950	$1.10	25d	1	0.61mi
22815 E Watford Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,800	$1.18	5d	1	0.67mi
1238 W Dana Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,100	$1.10	0d	1	0.68mi
35468 N Shorthorn Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,840	$1.25	23d	1	0.69mi
880 W Busa Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1905	$1,869	$0.98	18d	1	0.69mi
880 W Busa Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1905	$1,869	$0.98	16d	1	0.69mi
1151 W Dana Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,399	$1.26	25d	1	0.72mi
36501 N Senepol St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,300	$1.36	12d	1	0.72mi
925 W Danish Red Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1992	$1,906	$0.96	25d	1	0.73mi
26175 S 229th Pl Queen Creek, AZ	5.0	3.5	2875	$3,595	$1.25	0d	1	0.73mi
23059 E Pegasus Pkwy Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	1951	$2,398	$1.23	21d	1	0.75mi
23059 E Pegasus Pkwy Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	1947	$2,498	$1.28	23d	1	0.75mi
34437 N Picket Post Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.77mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	45d	1	0.77mi
819 W Dana Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2066	$1,909	$0.92	45d	1	0.81mi
480 W Dexter Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,106	$1.26	16d	1	0.83mi
1177 W Desert Glen Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,100	$1.06	45d	1	0.85mi
275 W Santa Gertrudis Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,795	$1.23	25d	1	0.87mi
284 W Jersey Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2185	$1,806	$0.83	6d	1	0.91mi
515 W Love Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,915	$1.14	12d	1	0.93mi
1168 W Desert Basin Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$1,971	$0.96	45d	1	0.93mi
1042 W Desert Basin Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2343	$1,900	$0.81	14d	1	0.96mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.97mi
36825 N Yellowstone Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	1939	$2,295	$1.18	25d	1	0.99mi
22457 E Watford Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,650	$1.22	45d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $399,900 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

3. 2026-04-09
   price $399,999 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

4. 2026-04-02
   price $409,900 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $415,000 Active 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   TURN-KEY and beautifully refreshed, this 2012 single-level home offers over 2,200 sq ft of flexible living space in a prime location. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a spacious great room PLUS a separate living/dining area--perfect for entertaining, a home office, or playroom. Fresh interior paint creates a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. The kitchen comes complete with ALL stainless steel appliances, newer dishwasher, and washer & dryer included. Major upgrade: the A/C system is just over 2 years old for energy efficiency and peace of mind. Standout extras include a 7-camera video surveillance system and permanent year-round holiday lighting. Fantastic curb appeal and ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,321 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,318/yr (+$110/mo · 99.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,321
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$15,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,793
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $399,999 ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $409,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $415,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,321 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.