197 Frederick Rd · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1961 7,200 sqft lot $120/sqft · 43% below area Est $333k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Raised Ranch has 3 bedrooms, large living room and eat-in kitchen. Updated: architectural roof, furnace, electrical, and windows. Partially finished basement with glass block windows and a roughed in bathroom. Two car garage. Massive partially fenced in backyard and a back porch. Offers are due May 12th at 9:30am. Don’t wait!

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Updated windows
• Roughed in bathroom

Tags

• ARCHITECTURAL ROOF
• UPDATED FURNACE
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ROUGHED IN BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Composite siding
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot (60 x 120)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bathroom rough-in; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $179,579 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,273
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -43.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2542 Colvin Blvd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,556 (-2%)	1mo	$345,000	$222	81
40 Dale Dr	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,552 (-2%)	3mo	$295,000	$190	69
180 Lorelee Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,482 (-7%)	0mo	$350,000	$236	66
480 Cornwall Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-2%)	1mo	$315,000	$203	62
27 Greenfield Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,430 (-10%)	7mo	$353,200	$247	62
8 North Way	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-13%)	4mo	$255,000	$185	51
405 Woodgate Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-10%)	10mo	$380,816	$266	43
214 Heritage Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-10%)	5mo	$305,000	$214	43
174 Heritage Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,768 (+12%)	8mo	$253,000	$143	43
393 Woodgate Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,714 (+8%)	10mo	$350,044	$204	39
85 Halladay Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-15%)	2mo	$255,000	$189	37
166 Kingsbury Ln	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,351 (-15%)	9mo	$253,000	$187	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,332
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $26,546
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,732/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $170	+0% $116	+5% $62	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $45	+0% $116	+5% $187	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $164	base $116	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	1.16mi
954 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,700	$1.09	4d	1	1.20mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	2d	1	1.26mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.31mi
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	2d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 338-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $189,900 Active 338-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,971 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,732
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $1,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,732 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.