5019 27th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,978 sqft · Townhouse public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1976 3,190 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this beautifully renovated townhome located on a secluded cul-de-sac near Texas Tech! This home has a wonderful floor plan with a cute fireplace and plenty of natural light from skylights. Make yourself at home with 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and two living areas! Lots of recent upgrades! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Natural light
• Renovated townhome

Tags

• RENOVATED TOWNHOME
• SECLUDED CUL-DE-SAC
• NATURAL LIGHT
• RECENT UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-318/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 9871% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,899 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-33,645
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-48,814
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $164,821

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $21	+0% $-26	+5% $-74	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-88	+0% $-26	+5% $35	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $17	base $-26	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	22d	1	0.31mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	22d	1	0.45mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.46mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	14d	1	0.47mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.55mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.61mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	22d	1	0.66mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	44d	1	0.67mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.68mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.69mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.70mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	44d	1	0.79mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	14d	1	0.79mi
4903 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	0.81mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	14d	1	0.81mi
5211 17th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2316	$2,000	$0.86	44d	1	0.84mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	44d	1	0.84mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	22d	1	0.88mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	14d	1	0.91mi
4814 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,795	$1.10	14d	1	0.91mi
5209 15th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2193	$1,849	$0.84	22d	1	0.95mi
4803 15th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2369	$2,500	$1.06	44d	1	0.96mi
5604 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,400	$0.97	22d	1	0.98mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	44d	1	0.99mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	22d	1	0.99mi
5417 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$1,600	$0.73	44d	1	1.00mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	22d	1	1.01mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	1.02mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	1.04mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	44d	1	1.05mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	1.06mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	44d	1	1.06mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	22d	1	1.06mi
3705 Elkhart Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	22d	1	1.06mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.07mi
5230 14th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,350	$0.93	14d	1	1.07mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	1.13mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	14d	1	1.13mi
5017 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,600	$0.91	44d	1	1.16mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	22d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,500 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,500 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,500 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,500 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $169,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,500 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $173,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $174,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Check out this beautifully renovated townhome located on a secluded cul-de-sac near Texas Tech! This home has a wonderful floor plan with a cute fireplace and plenty of natural light from skylights. Make yourself at home with 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and two living areas! Lots of recent upgrades! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

19. 2026-05-05
    listed $1,700
20. 2026-04-02
    listed $174,900 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Check out this beautifully renovated townhome located on a secluded cul-de-sac near Texas Tech! This home has a wonderful floor plan with a cute fireplace and plenty of natural light from skylights. Make yourself at home with 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and two living areas! Lots of recent upgrades! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

21. 2024-04-24
    historical $1,450
22. 2024-04-09
    listed $1,450
23. 2024-01-22
    historical $1,450
24. 2023-12-19
    listed $1,450
25. 2023-06-20
    historical 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

26. 2023-06-19
    soldstatus Closed 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

27. 2023-05-16
    status Pending 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

28. 2023-05-16
    price $189,500 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

29. 2023-05-09
    price $189,900 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

30. 2023-05-01
    status Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

31. 2023-04-19
    historical 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

32. 2023-04-14
    listed $190,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Renovated top to bottom!! In the process of getting a new roof! 3 bed, 2 bath townhome plus a bonus room that can be another bedroom. Walk in shower, granite counter tops, sky lights, vinyl plank throughout, huge closets, stone fireplace, small courtyard and yard in front and a 2 car port in the back. HOA that is only $50 per month that takes care of the yard. Very close to Texas Tech, LCU, and shopping. A must see! This one won't last long!

33. 2022-12-13
    soldstatus
34. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus Closed
35. 2022-11-10
    status Pending
36. 2022-11-03
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,102 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+39.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $174,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $1,700 LARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $174,900 LARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Rental Removed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2024-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-22 Rental Removed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2023-06-20 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-06-19 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $189,500 LARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $189,900 LARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $190,000 LARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $125,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,983 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.