20216 W 194th Ter · Spring Hill, KS 66083

$309,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $251/sqft · 26% below area Est $420k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is host to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple everyday transitions and multitasking. Two bedrooms share a private hallway, while the luxe owner's suite boasts a private location at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Private hallway
• Luxe owner's suite
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE HALLWAY
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#93 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Hill (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #11 of 169 in KS (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 303 students, 11% FRL); Spring Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #89 of 219 statewide, top 40%, 471 students, 24% FRL); Spring Hill High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #26 of 327 statewide, top 8%, 983 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,221 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,406
• List price: $309,890
• Delta: -26.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20530 Newcastle St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+7%)	0mo	$336,611	$255	84
20524 Newcastle St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+11%)	0mo	$366,900	$269	78
20264 W 194th Ter	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+11%)	9mo	$332,615	$244	73
20348 W 194th Ter	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+11%)	11mo	$332,990	$244	72
20659 Barker St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,337 (+8%)	12mo	$332,510	$249	62
19603 W 197th Ter W	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+4%)	21mo	$409,000	$319	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-60,676
• Equity at exit: $46,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-66,200
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.7 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $370,348 ($256/sqft)
• Median days on market: 249 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +33.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 66083

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $286,039

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-58	+0% $-165	+5% $-272	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-264	+0% $-165	+5% $-66	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-86	base $-165	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,472
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19427 Lincoln St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,265	$1.80	5d	1	0.91mi
20368 W 194th Ter Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	119d	1	1.12mi
20628 Crestview Cir Spring Hill, KS	2.0–3.0	2.5	1305	$2,200	$1.69	0d	71	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $321,150

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family propertyAddress: 20216 W 194th Ter, Spring Hill, KS 66083
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,234

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (RC Armstrong plan)Active listing

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $309,890 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $309,890 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $309,890 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,890 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,890 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $309,890 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $309,890 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $309,890 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $309,890 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,890 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,890 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-07-03
    price $309,890 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $312,440 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-07-02
    days on market $312,440 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-07-01
    days on market $312,440 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-30
    price $312,440 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $315,000 Active 80 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $315,000 Active 79 DOM
20. 2026-06-27
    days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
21. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
22. 2026-06-25
    days on market $317,000 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-06-22
    days on market $317,000 Active 73 DOM
24. 2026-06-21
    days on market $317,000 Active 72 DOM
25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $317,000 Active 69 DOM
26. 2026-06-18
    price $317,000 Active 68 DOM
27. 2026-06-17
    days on market $320,000 Active 68 DOM
28. 2026-06-16
    days on market $320,000 Active 67 DOM
29. 2026-06-15
    days on market $320,000 Active 66 DOM
30. 2026-06-13
    days on market $320,000 Active 64 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 58 DOM
34. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 55 DOM
35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 54 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 53 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 52 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$7,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,764
• After-tax cash flow: $-214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,170–$18,510 screening

This single-story home features a spacious open-concept layout with new finishes and fixtures, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Modernizes home and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wolf Creek Elementary School C- KS #131/684 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Spring Hill Middle School F KS #89/219 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Spring Hill High School F KS #26/327 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Hill
• NCES district ID: 2011850
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,172
• Composite: 40.26/100
• National rank: #3767
• State rank: #11 of 169 in KS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #5370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, KS
• County: Johnson County · 663,396 people
• City population: 13,011
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 13,011
• Household income: $116,791
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 265.6494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $321,150

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family propertyAddress: 20216 W 194th Ter, Spring Hill, KS 66083
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,234

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (RC Armstrong plan)Active listing