16 Liberty St · Middletown, NY 10940

$320,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1868 6,750 sqft lot Est $391k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 16 Liberty Street, a charming home ideally located in the heart of Middletown. This inviting property offers a comfortable layout with bright living spaces and a warm, welcoming feel—perfect for everyday living or investment potential. Inside, you’ll find generously sized rooms, natural light throughout, and a flexible floor plan ready to accommodate your lifestyle. The outdoor space provides room to relax, entertain, or enjoy the neighborhood setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, parks, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to all that Middletown has to offer while maintaining a residential feel. Whether you’re a first-time bu

Key facts

• Easy access
• Flexible floor plan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $320k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Presidential Park Elementary School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,774 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 1,300 students, 76% FRL); Monhagen Middle School (math 16% / reading 39%, grade F, #576 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 817 students, 75% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,168/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $320k implies a 2362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1868 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $320,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1868 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.14%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,852
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Beattie Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-1%)	6mo	$385,000	$231	58
42 Prince St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+3%)	12mo	$463,750	$266	47
125 Linden Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+4%)	22mo	$325,000	$185	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $32,792
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $209,785
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $6,001/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,926

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,162	-5% $1,072	+0% $981	+5% $891	+10% $800
Rent	-10% $652	-5% $817	+0% $981	+5% $1,146	+10% $1,310
Rate	-1.0pp $1,142	-0.5pp $1,063	base $981	+0.5pp $898	+1.0pp $814

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1.5	$4,168
Total (2 units)			$4,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.36mi
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	24d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $320,000 Active
3. 1970-12-01
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,001 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,001 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,001
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,001
• − Management: −$4,001
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $7,179
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $10,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2361.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1970-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,001 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.