40541 Mostyn Lake Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2020 6,176 sqft lot Est $287k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of our most popular plans with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the master suite is a generous size bedroom and so is the covered patio, oversized shower at the master bathroom and a beautiful kitchen with upgraded cabinets and exquisite backs plash details and stainless steel appliances. The 2" faux wood blinds throughout gives this home additional privacy. A true Gem!

Key facts

• Wooded surroundings
• Island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WOODED SURROUNDINGS
• QUICK ACCESS TO FM 1488

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, stone, and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Back yard fence; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Thermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Marble counters; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,580 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,902
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12743 Dina Springs Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+2%)	1mo	$254,990	$141	89
40639 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (-1%)	5mo	$282,990	$162	78
40494 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-7%)	6mo	$269,000	$164	78
40696 Pessi Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (-1%)	6mo	$282,990	$162	73
12759 Dina Springs Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (-10%)	1mo	$268,990	$168	72
12739 Dina Springs Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-9%)	6mo	$267,990	$167	72
12751 Dina Springs Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,978 (+12%)	0mo	$269,990	$136	69
40716 Pessi Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (+7%)	2mo	$268,990	$142	65
13082 Sarah Springs Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-14%)	5mo	$244,990	$161	58
12735 Dina Springs Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (+14%)	3mo	$319,990	$158	57
40723 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-14%)	6mo	$252,990	$167	56
40756 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,035 (+15%)	4mo	$309,000	$152	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $103,991
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $321,937
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$723 /mo · $8,679/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $173,580

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	44d	1	0.28mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	2d	31	1.09mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,679 · $723/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,679 · $723/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$8,679
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$10,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2021-01-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-17 Price Changed $216,990 HARMLS
• 2020-12-15 Listed $229,794 HARMLS

Property tax history

+66.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,679 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.