Plan 1838 Modeled Plan · Seagoville, TX 75159

$271,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily · 565 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Walk-in closet at primary suite * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Tub and separate shower at primary bath * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Kitchen island * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Open space * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near local schools * Convenient to downtown * Near entertainment and leisure

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity
• Kitchen island

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENCLOSED WATER CLOSET
• TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $271,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,891.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 516 students, 92% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,221 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,891
• List price: $271,990
• Delta: -6.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1510 Burton Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,838 (0%)	3mo	$299,932	$163	92
1520 Newsted Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,003 (+9%)	0mo	$307,956	$154	79
820 Trujillo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-9%)	3mo	$273,788	$163	77
747 Quinette Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (-8%)	4mo	$255,000	$151	72
735 Layton Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-3%)	0mo	$351,900	$197	70
504 Hampton Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,855 (+1%)	0mo	$225,000	$121	65
805 Brandon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,015 (+10%)	4mo	$287,500	$143	63
746 Layton Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-9%)	4mo	$339,900	$204	63
1705 Paul Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-7%)	0mo	$347,900	$204	60
614 E Farmers Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (-14%)	2mo	$289,999	$183	48
719 Stacie Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-14%)	4mo	$289,000	$182	42
807 Ross Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+13%)	3mo	$320,000	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,442
• Equity at exit: $43,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-107,829
• Equity at exit: $25,237

Cash invested: $81,729 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.5 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,996 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 41 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75159

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,378/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $254,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-161	+0% $-262	+5% $-363	+10% $-463
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-349	+0% $-262	+5% $-174	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-187	base $-262	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,973
• Closing costs: $8,757
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
813 Huddleston Ct Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,855	$1.27	98d	1	0.19mi
1625 Emily Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,869	$1.21	6d	1	0.27mi
1630 Emily Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,849	$1.20	103d	1	0.29mi
1013 Shadybrook Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	39d	1	0.33mi
1217 Brittany Way Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,845	$1.26	0d	1	0.39mi
718 Dakota Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2167	$2,400	$1.11	0d	1	0.40mi
1432 Baylee St Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	2101	$2,000	$0.95	139d	1	0.51mi
1304 Riverview Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,899	$1.27	120d	1	0.51mi
611 Judy Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	1.0	1472	$1,613	$1.10	34d	1	0.52mi
1306 Trent St Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,899	$1.18	82d	1	0.54mi
707 Shadybrook Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,950	$1.45	139d	1	0.56mi
644 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,550	$0.99	44d	1	0.57mi
1921 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,995	$1.13	103d	1	0.60mi
612 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,095	$1.04	139d	1	0.62mi
1933 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,219	$1.00	90d	1	0.62mi
623 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,295	$1.04	39d	1	0.63mi
623 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,295	$1.04	74d	1	0.63mi
1927 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,145	$1.07	90d	1	0.63mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,195	$0.99	47d	1	0.64mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,195	$0.99	0d	1	0.64mi
740 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,199	$1.10	12d	1	0.64mi
740 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,300	$1.15	26d	1	0.64mi
734 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,299	$1.04	24d	1	0.65mi
1935 Hialeah Dr Unit 1935HD Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,145	$1.07	51d	1	0.65mi
1610 Parkhaven Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	1.5	1450	$1,695	$1.17	110d	1	0.67mi
620 Fountain Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,300	$0.89	116d	1	0.69mi
324 Greenhaven Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,150	$1.24	80d	1	0.70mi
324 Greenhaven Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	116d	1	0.70mi
2028 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,095	$1.16	63d	1	0.71mi
2017 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,095	$0.95	90d	1	0.72mi
1914 Madison Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$2,399	$0.93	139d	1	0.72mi
404 Tredway Ct Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1721	$2,500	$1.45	51d	1	0.73mi
2033 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,250	$1.02	90d	1	0.73mi
2030 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,185	$0.99	103d	1	0.73mi
1711 Wooley Way Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,100	$1.21	18d	1	0.73mi
2041 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,095	$1.16	0d	1	0.75mi
2103 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,100	$1.23	12d	1	0.75mi
2033 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,195	$0.99	19d	1	0.75mi
2012 Canterbury Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	87d	1	0.77mi
639 Arlington Park Ct Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,299	$1.15	117d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $271,990 Active 565 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $271,990 Active 564 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $271,990 Active 563 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $271,990 Active 562 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $271,990 Active 561 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $271,990 Active 560 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $271,990 Active 559 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $271,990 Active 558 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $271,990 Active 557 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $271,990 Active 556 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $271,990 Active 555 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $271,990 Active 554 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $271,990 Active 553 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $271,990 Active 552 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $271,990 Active 546 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $271,990 Active 545 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $271,990 Active 543 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 541 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 539 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 538 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 536 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 535 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 534 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 533 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 532 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 530 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 529 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 528 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 527 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 526 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 525 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 524 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 523 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 522 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 521 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 520 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 519 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 518 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $269,990 Active 516 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 515 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 514 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 510 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 508 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 507 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 505 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 503 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 502 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 501 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 499 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 497 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,378
• − Insurance: −$1,459
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$8,491
• Taxable loss: −$8,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,190–$27,570 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, new roof, and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Modernizes home and adds value for tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Central El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Seagoville Middle F TX #1,407/1,662 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Kathlyn Joy Gilliam Collegiate Academy C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Seagoville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagoville, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 23,456
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,456
• Household income: $72,897
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 32% Two or more races 20% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.45%
• Current HPI: 321.2065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Listed $306,990 Zillow