412 Venetian Way · Panama City, FL 32405

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Townhouse public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1984 1,742 sqft lot $144/sqft · 6% below area Est $154k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

Key facts

• Sun room
• Updated kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW A C UNIT
• NEW ROOF
• SUN ROOM
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.25%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,412
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -6.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
428 Venetian Way	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,008 (0%)	10mo	$177,500	$176	89
410 Venetian Way	0.01mi	2/1.5	1,008 (0%)	14mo	$84,900	$84	86
3900 Venetian Cir	0.08mi	2/1.5	972 (-4%)	10mo	$145,000	$149	80
3901 Venetian Cir	0.06mi	2/1.5	972 (-4%)	13mo	$181,000	$186	78
3906 Venetian Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+8%)	5mo	$196,883	$182	74
3923 Molina Rd	0.27mi	2/1.5	972 (-4%)	10mo	$157,500	$162	71
825 Bradford Cir	0.44mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	22mo	$122,500	$134	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,657
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-188
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,644/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $286	+0% $245	+5% $204	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $181	+0% $245	+5% $310	+10% $374
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $282	base $245	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3938 Solano Rd Unit 3938 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	0.08mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,634	$1.07	14d	34	0.14mi
1125 Bradley Cir Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,850	$1.55	14d	1	0.26mi
1019 Bradford Cir Unit 1019 Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,225	$1.51	22d	1	0.34mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,624	$1.38	14d	24	0.62mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,799	$1.88	14d	26	1.26mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,540	$1.25	22d	1	1.43mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,524	$1.27	22d	6	1.45mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 193 DOM
19. 2026-05-17
    price $145,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

20. 2026-04-14
    price $150,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

21. 2026-02-12
    price $160,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

22. 2025-12-24
    price $170,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

23. 2025-11-17
    listed $180,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY to own a home at aNaffordable price! Conveniently located just off Hwy. 390, this townhome features a spacious living area with tiled floors, updated kitchen, and a new a/c unit in 2020 and roof in 2019. The two bedrooms are spacious with a full bath on the second floor, and a half bath off the first-floor living area. Off the back of the home is a sun room that also offers additional storage overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard. Do not miss this chance to be a homeowner!!

24. 2021-12-14
    historical
25. 2020-03-12
    soldstatus $114,950
26. 2020-03-12
    soldstatus $114,950
27. 2020-01-06
    listed $114,950
28. 2019-12-03
    historical
29. 2019-11-12
    listed $124,950
30. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $60,000
31. 2012-02-20
    soldstatus $44,900
32. 2011-12-19
    listed $44,900
33. 2007-11-29
    listed $119,900
34. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus $111,000
35. 2006-08-30
    soldstatus $111,000
36. 2006-06-15
    listed $113,900
37. 2004-03-17
    soldstatus $60,500
38. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus $60,500
39. 2004-03-14
    listed $67,900
40. 2002-04-02
    soldstatus $54,500
41. 2002-03-29
    soldstatus $54,500
42. 2002-01-18
    listed $59,000
43. 1997-02-01
    soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,644
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $2,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $150,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $160,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $180,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $114,950 Public Records
• 2020-03-12 Sold (MLS) $114,950 CPARMLS
• 2020-01-06 Listed $114,950 CPARMLS
• 2019-12-03 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2019-11-12 Listed $124,950 CPARMLS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-20 Sold (MLS) $44,900 CPARMLS
• 2011-12-19 Listed $44,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-11-29 Listed $119,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-30 Sold (MLS) $111,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-06-15 Listed $113,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2004-03-16 Sold (MLS) $60,500 CPARMLS
• 2004-03-14 Listed $67,900 CPARMLS
• 2002-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 2002-03-29 Sold (MLS) $54,500 CPARMLS
• 2002-01-18 Listed $59,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,644 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.