1830 Fair Hvn · Kaufman, TX 75142

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 1.05 ac lot Est $226k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your next chapter in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the peaceful community of Fair Haven Estates in Kaufman, Texas! Boasting 2,128 square feet of living space on a generous 1.05-acre lot, this property at 1830 Fair Haven Circle offers the perfect blend of comfort and country charm. The well-thought-out layout includes an additional office conveniently located off the master. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood where spacious lots and friendly vibes define the lifestyle. Whether you're raising a family, seeking a comfortable retreat, or looking for room to grow, this Kaufman gem delivers ample space both inside and out. Enjoy the convenience of small-town living with easy access to local amenities and the greater Dallas area. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity to call Fair Haven Estates home

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property attached: Yes; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Property to be treated as clear (loan type); No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association (None)

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway (no covered or carport spaces listed)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2005
• Exterior features: Circular driveway; Approximately 1.05-acre lot; Subdivision: Fair Haven

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approx. 20 x 20; Bedroom (level 1) — approx. 15 x 15; Bedroom (level 1) — approx. 15 x 15; Bedroom (level 1) — approx. 15 x 15
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Kaufman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#478 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Kaufman ISD (town): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #437 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J R Phillips El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 471 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 58% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,046 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,568
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1830 Fair Hvn	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,128 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$106	99
1939 Fair Haven Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-10%)	13mo	$150,000	$78	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,459
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,276
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75142

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,703/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $379	+0% $315	+5% $251	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $228	+0% $315	+5% $401	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $372	base $315	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Discover your next chapter in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the peaceful community of Fair Haven Estates in Kaufman, Texas! Boasting 2,128 square feet of living space on a generous 1.05-acre lot, this property at 1830 Fair Haven Circle offers the perfect blend of comfort and country charm. The well-thought-out layout includes an additional office conveniently located off the master. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood where spacious lots and friendly vibes define the lifestyle. Whether you're raising a family, seeking a comfortable retreat, or looking for room to grow, this Kaufman gem delivers ample space both inside and out. Enjoy the convenience of small-town living with easy access to local amenities and the greater Dallas area. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity to call Fair Haven Estates home

2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Discover your next chapter in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the peaceful community of Fair Haven Estates in Kaufman, Texas! Boasting 2,128 square feet of living space on a generous 1.05-acre lot, this property at 1830 Fair Haven Circle offers the perfect blend of comfort and country charm. The well-thought-out layout includes an additional office conveniently located off the master. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood where spacious lots and friendly vibes define the lifestyle. Whether you're raising a family, seeking a comfortable retreat, or looking for room to grow, this Kaufman gem delivers ample space both inside and out. Enjoy the convenience of small-town living with easy access to local amenities and the greater Dallas area. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity to call Fair Haven Estates home

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $225,000 Active 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Discover your next chapter in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the peaceful community of Fair Haven Estates in Kaufman, Texas! Boasting 2,128 square feet of living space on a generous 1.05-acre lot, this property at 1830 Fair Haven Circle offers the perfect blend of comfort and country charm. The well-thought-out layout includes an additional office conveniently located off the master. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood where spacious lots and friendly vibes define the lifestyle. Whether you're raising a family, seeking a comfortable retreat, or looking for room to grow, this Kaufman gem delivers ample space both inside and out. Enjoy the convenience of small-town living with easy access to local amenities and the greater Dallas area. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity to call Fair Haven Estates home

5. 2005-05-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,414/yr (+$201/mo · 141.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,703
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kaufman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825200
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,081
• Composite: 33.36/100
• National rank: #5485
• State rank: #437 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kaufman

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #9602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,301

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.48%
• Current HPI: 261.3091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $225,000 GTAR
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,703 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.