3051 Cane Ridge Rd · North Middletown, KY 40361

$175,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Fair condition 0.49 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

.Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Complete renovation
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• NEW METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other construction materials; Metal and shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built with other materials
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Additional outbuilding/other structure; Many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Other heating; Electric cooling; Heat pump cooling; Other cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#409 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bourbon County (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #108 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cane Ridge Elementary School (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 464 students, 56% FRL); Bourbon County Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 593 students, 63% FRL); Bourbon County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 790 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Bourbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $175k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,261 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,379
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,763
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40361

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $138	+0% $77	+5% $17	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $9	+0% $77	+5% $145	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $122	base $77	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $175,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2022-04-22
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   .Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

8. 2022-02-02
   status Pending 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   .Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

9. 2022-01-31
   status Active 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   .Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

10. 2021-12-07
    status Pending 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    .Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

11. 2021-12-01
    listed $90,000 Active 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    .Mobile home Double wide,., 3 bedrooms,2 bath, has been rental home for $650.00 month. Listed on PVA as res and Com property, that includes the old Little Rock grocery store building. (Selling both buildings as is Mobile home and old store building cannot be divided off. )

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $1,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. The kitchen and bathrooms are in poor condition and need major repairs. The home's exterior and interior walls also need attention. With updates, it has the potential to become a move-in-ready home with increased rental or resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major flooring — dated and in poor condition
• Major interior walls/paint — dated and cluttered

Value-add opportunities

• Both new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality
• Both new bathroom fixtures and paint — enhances the aesthetic and functionality
• Both new flooring — improves the overall look and feel of the home
• Both painting and decluttering — enhances the home's appearance and creates a more inviting atmosphere

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · dated and cluttered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑
• Both new bathroom fixtures and paint — enhances the aesthetic and functionality ↑
• Both new flooring — improves the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both painting and decluttering — enhances the home's appearance and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bourbon County
• NCES district ID: 2100540
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $47,654
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7523
• State rank: #108 of 165 in KY

Livability — North Middletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #19598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bourbon County · 18,361 people
• City population: 94
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 18,361
• Household income: $63,333
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Bourbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,485 people
• By 2030: 20,559 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 20,491 · +0.0%
• By 2050: 20,065 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 19,173 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 16,646 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bourbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.4% · R 65.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 241.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+94.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $175,000 ImagineMLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (MLS) $90,000 ImagineMLS
• 2022-02-02 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2022-01-31 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2021-12-07 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2021-12-01 Listed $90,000 ImagineMLS