3009 Plum Tree Ln · Flower Mound, TX 75022

$314,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1995 5,227 sqft lot $214/sqft · 25% below area Est $420k · 25% under $13/mo HOA ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best and final offers are due by 8:00 PM today (May 8) ! Welcome to 3009 Plum Tree Ln! Step inside to a bright, open layout with vaulted ceilings that create an airy feel in the main living areas. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. Natural light fills the home through large windows, adding warmth throughout. Outside, you’ll find a classic brick exterior, a two-car garage, and a sizable backyard with mature trees—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, 3009 Plum Tree Ln offers solid value, practical floor plan, and plenty of potential to personalize and update.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open layout
• Functional layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-143/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Flower Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#317 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,164 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,822
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -24.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2337 Suntree Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+6%)	9mo	$410,000	$264	78
2216 Starleaf Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+9%)	10mo	$435,000	$271	74
2305 Amhearst Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,471 (-0%)	1mo	$407,500	$277	70
2512 Woodhaven Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-1%)	9mo	$436,500	$299	67
2433 Creekhaven Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-0%)	19mo	$403,000	$274	56
2600 Belmont Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-0%)	19mo	$379,000	$258	55
2401 Creekhaven Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+6%)	10mo	$415,000	$265	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-60,165
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,730
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75022

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,103/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,917

Max offer price $312,801

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $77	+0% $-12	+5% $-101	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-126	+0% $-12	+5% $103	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $68	base $-12	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2136 Mahogany St Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,651	$1.42	14d	1	0.10mi
2305 Hickory Leaf Ln Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,650	$1.46	15d	1	0.20mi
2212 Lakeshore Dr Flower Mound, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	0d	1	0.79mi
1929 Shenandoah Ln Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,600	$1.49	25d	1	1.03mi
2604 Potomac Dr Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,495	$1.42	21d	1	1.15mi
1736 Marian Ln Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,600	$1.40	25d	1	1.19mi
3313 Stone Bridge Dr Flower Mound, TX	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,595	$1.52	44d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Contingent 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Best and final offers are due by 8:00 PM today (May 8) ! Welcome to 3009 Plum Tree Ln! Step inside to a bright, open layout with vaulted ceilings that create an airy feel in the main living areas. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. Natural light fills the home through large windows, adding warmth throughout. Outside, you’ll find a classic brick exterior, a two-car garage, and a sizable backyard with mature trees—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, 3009 Plum Tree Ln offers solid value, practical floor plan, and plenty of potential to personalize and update.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $314,900 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Best and final offers are due by 8:00 PM today (May 8) ! Welcome to 3009 Plum Tree Ln! Step inside to a bright, open layout with vaulted ceilings that create an airy feel in the main living areas. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. Natural light fills the home through large windows, adding warmth throughout. Outside, you’ll find a classic brick exterior, a two-car garage, and a sizable backyard with mature trees—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, 3009 Plum Tree Ln offers solid value, practical floor plan, and plenty of potential to personalize and update.

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $349,900 Active 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Best and final offers are due by 8:00 PM today (May 8) ! Welcome to 3009 Plum Tree Ln! Step inside to a bright, open layout with vaulted ceilings that create an airy feel in the main living areas. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. Natural light fills the home through large windows, adding warmth throughout. Outside, you’ll find a classic brick exterior, a two-car garage, and a sizable backyard with mature trees—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, 3009 Plum Tree Ln offers solid value, practical floor plan, and plenty of potential to personalize and update.

4. 1998-05-27
   soldstatus
5. 1995-08-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,103 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,103 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$6,103
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$5,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $1,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flower Mound

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #7074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Mound, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 75,184
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,090
• Household income: $177,357
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.94%
• Current HPI: 275.2094
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.24%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $314,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $349,900 NTREIS
• 1998-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,103 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.