2638 E Federal St · Baltimore, MD 21213

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1940 4,356 sqft lot $88/sqft · 23% below area Est $156k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity - seller will make no repairs. Walk into the first floor that consist of a living space 2 bedrooms and bathroom with a lower kitchen. The upstairs has its own entrance. The upper level consist of 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and a kitchen.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,995/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-682 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $120k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.32%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,113
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -23.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Kenhill Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,356 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$177	91
1418 N Linwood Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,356 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$66	81
2422 E Federal St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (-0%)	2mo	$55,000	$41	81
2220 Henneman Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (+6%)	1mo	$190,000	$132	60
3533 Elmley Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-1%)	1mo	$70,000	$52	57
1106 N Lakewood Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (+13%)	3mo	$50,000	$33	50
3238 Ravenwood Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,158 (-15%)	0mo	$70,000	$60	47
2436 Ashland Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	3mo	$125,000	$104	46
3555 Elmora Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,178 (-13%)	1mo	$254,000	$216	46
3564 Elmora Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,478 (+9%)	1mo	$133,500	$90	44
2712 Ashland Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (-14%)	1mo	$175,000	$150	42
1722 E Lanvale St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	0mo	$125,000	$104	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $44,916
• Equity at exit: $31,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $131,800
• Equity at exit: $35,240

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,917/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $771	+0% $737	+5% $703	+10% $669
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $658	+0% $737	+5% $816	+10% $895
Rate	-1.0pp $797	-0.5pp $768	base $737	+0.5pp $706	+1.0pp $674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2621 E Oliver St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.08mi
2626 E Preston St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,800	$1.58	44d	1	0.20mi
1403 N Linwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,995	$1.20	44d	1	0.22mi
2706 E Biddle St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,395	$0.88	44d	1	0.27mi
2311 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.30mi
1215 N Ellwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,795	$1.59	24d	1	0.40mi
3322 Ravenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	932	$1,800	$1.93	24d	1	0.49mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	44d	1	0.50mi
3339 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	44d	1	0.51mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	24d	1	0.52mi
3218 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.54mi
3317 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.54mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	13d	1	0.54mi
2202 Prentiss Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	0.55mi
2729 Ashland Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.56mi
1629 N Wolfe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1561	$1,800	$1.15	24d	1	0.61mi
809 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1746	$1,400	$0.80	22d	1	0.62mi
2815 E Madison St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	44d	1	0.64mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	20d	1	0.65mi
724 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	5d	1	0.67mi
718 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	5d	1	0.67mi
1627 Rutland Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	0.68mi
1627 Rutland Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	24d	1	0.68mi
1814 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	24d	1	0.68mi
821 N Collington Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,950	$1.70	44d	1	0.70mi
627 N Lakewood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1175	$1,900	$1.62	22d	1	0.73mi
3551 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1872	$2,095	$1.12	24d	1	0.74mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	18d	1	0.75mi
2608 McElderry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,550	$1.35	24d	1	0.76mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	44d	1	0.77mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	15d	1	0.77mi
3603 Ravenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1566	$1,600	$1.02	44d	1	0.78mi
537 N Lakewood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1755	$2,050	$1.17	44d	1	0.78mi
539 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,300	$1.35	44d	1	0.79mi
533 N Lakewood Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1758	$4,500	$2.56	44d	1	0.79mi
2431 McElderry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	44d	1	0.80mi
1728 Lantern Mews Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,700	$1.69	18d	1	0.81mi
2903 Jefferson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1609	$1,850	$1.15	44d	1	0.87mi
3304 McElderry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.87mi
2308 Jefferson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	907	$1,450	$1.60	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $120,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $145,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Investment opportunity - seller will make no repairs. Walk into the first floor that consist of a living space 2 bedrooms and bathroom with a lower kitchen. The upstairs has its own entrance. The upper level consist of 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and a kitchen.

16. 2026-04-28
    price $145,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Investment opportunity - seller will make no repairs. Walk into the first floor that consist of a living space 2 bedrooms and bathroom with a lower kitchen. The upstairs has its own entrance. The upper level consist of 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and a kitchen.

17. 2026-04-19
    historical $159,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Investment opportunity - seller will make no repairs. Walk into the first floor that consist of a living space 2 bedrooms and bathroom with a lower kitchen. The upstairs has its own entrance. The upper level consist of 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and a kitchen.

18. 2015-02-03
    historical
19. 2015-02-03
    historical
20. 2014-09-03
    listed Active
21. 2014-09-03
    listed $149,000
22. 2007-09-01
    historical
23. 2007-05-16
    listed
24. 1988-08-05
    soldstatus $37,000
25. 1986-10-28
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,917
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $7,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+326.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-09-03 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-09-03 Listed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-09-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-05-16 Listed — MRIS
• 1988-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,917 · +58.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.