452 Montauk Hwy · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1991 1.30 ac lot $894/sqft · 25% above area Est $1078k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly Renovated Craftsman's home, located on over an acre of land in the heart of East Quogue. The home is Energy efficient and a smart home, built with the consumer in mind. 3 over sized bedrooms 1.5 bathrooms brand new kitchen with energy star appliances. Beautiful fireplace embraces the family room plenty of light through-out. All new composite siding new electric, new walls studs ect. truly a turn key home. What is a surprise is the property has a fully renovated cottage with it's own driveway leading up to it and is also fully renovated into a studio with a full kitchen bathroom side yard. In-Law suite, extra income as a rental or maybe a separate office for the home office worker. Thi

Key facts

• Brand new kitchen
• Smart home
• Own driveway

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT
• SMART HOME
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• ENERGY STAR APPLIANCES
• FULLY RENOVATED COTTAGE
• OWN DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Energy Star construction materials
• Exterior features: Guest house; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Indirect water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Original details; Master bedroom on main level; Recessed lighting; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; New windows; Unfinished walk-out basement; Unfinished attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($114k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.35M).
• Recommended offer: $1.31M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $550k; list at $1.35M implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,309,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.73%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,078,362
• List price: $1,350,000
• Delta: 25.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Halsey Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-9%)	11mo	$980,000	$710	56
7 Evergreen Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-2%)	12mo	$989,000	$666	53
30 Kennedy Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-12%)	14mo	$790,000	$594	44
82 Maple St #82	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	23mo	$345,000	$257	43
1 Friese Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,543 (+2%)	17mo	$1,199,000	$777	41
3 Evergreen Ct	0.68mi	3/4.0	1,594 (+6%)	13mo	$945,000	$593	36
1 W Side Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-9%)	21mo	$1,037,500	$758	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $388,474
• Equity at exit: $201,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $1,120,139
• Equity at exit: $116,723

Cash invested: $378,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,080
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,591/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,856
• Net cashflow: $9,534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,057

Max offer price $1,350,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,299	-5% $9,916	+0% $9,534	+5% $9,152	+10% $8,770
Rent	-10% $7,707	-5% $8,621	+0% $9,534	+5% $10,448	+10% $11,361
Rate	-1.0pp $10,214	-0.5pp $9,878	base $9,534	+0.5pp $9,185	+1.0pp $8,829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,500
• Closing costs: $40,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	0.27mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	25d	1	0.52mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	6d	1	0.56mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	44d	1	0.64mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	44d	1	0.78mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	19d	1	0.78mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	0.85mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	1.04mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	23d	1	1.15mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	44d	1	1.34mi
32 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1666	$30,000	$18.01	25d	1	1.36mi
30 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	1592	$30,000	$18.84	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    historical $4,500
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $1,350,000 Active 827-char remark
18. 2026-02-24
    listed $4,500
19. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,591 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,203 · $1,267/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,612/yr (+$634/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,621
• − Property taxes: −$7,591
• − Insurance: −$12,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,201
• − Management: −$22,201
• − Depreciation: −$39,273
• Taxable income: $98,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23,604
• After-tax cash flow: $90,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Rental Removed $4,500 ONEKEY
• 2026-05-04 Listed $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed for Rent $4,500 ONEKEY
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,591 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.