Summerhouse 2 Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$314,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two-story | 1908 Sq. Ft. | 3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths | flex room | 2-car attached garage | * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * * Mid-level foyer with window nook opens to split stairway. Second floor has large family room open to breakfast area and island kitchen overlooking covered balcony. Spacious main suite with private bath, features separate corner tub and shower with seat, and large walk-in closet. Utility room and half bath conveniently located. Large first floor flex room leads to covered patio. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets. Full bath and under stair storage located near garage entry.

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• Under stair storage
• Private bath

Tags

• COVERED BALCONY
• PRIVATE BATH
• CORNER TUB
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• UNDER STAIR STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $314,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($379/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $279,117 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,500
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: 0.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10014 Agave Point Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,910 (+0%)	2mo	$340,000	$178	94
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-0%)	1mo	$339,000	$178	93
10003 Agave Point Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-3%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	90
5114 Getty Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+1%)	1mo	$373,214	$195	84
10010 Napier Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+2%)	1mo	$322,999	$166	81
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-10%)	1mo	$319,990	$187	78
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+8%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	76
5115 Getty Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+9%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	66
5219 Getty Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,129 (+12%)	1mo	$379,000	$178	62
5030 Morrison Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (+10%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	47
5619 Bobwhite Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,099 (+10%)	2mo	$474,900	$226	46
4823 Vaughan Way	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,177 (+14%)	2mo	$399,900	$184	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-55,919
• Equity at exit: $46,893

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-73,261
• Equity at exit: $27,192

Cash invested: $88,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,649
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,718/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $314,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,625
• Closing costs: $9,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	24d	1	0.40mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	2d	1	0.66mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	43d	1	1.07mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	43d	1	1.15mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	7d	1	1.19mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	12d	1	1.25mi
3734 Bach St Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $314,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   listed $314,990 Active 659-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,617
• − Property taxes: −$4,718
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,680
• − Management: −$2,680
• − Depreciation: −$9,149
• Taxable loss: −$4,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B