1036 Danby Rd · South Hill, NY 14850

$175,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1930 0.39 ac lot Est $187k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime Location - High Density Zoning - Transit Friendly - Priced to Sell! Prime investment or owner-occupant opportunity - versatile single-family home or rental in a highly desirable location. Zoned High Density Residential with excellent development potential. This property is steps from public transportation and minutes to top schools, abundant shopping, medical facilities, and local amenities. Solid cashflow or redevelopment prospect, priced to sell. Don't miss this rare chance to secure a well-located asset with convenient transit access and strong neighborhood demand.

Key facts

• Top schools
• Abundant shopping
• High density zoning

Tags

• HIGH DENSITY ZONING
• ZONED HIGH DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
• TOP SCHOOLS
• ABUNDANT SHOPPING
• MEDICAL FACILITIES
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-476/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (4.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D+, health & safety D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Hill School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 380 students, 0% FRL); Boynton Middle School (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #261 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 36% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,995 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,240
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1036 Danby Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,208 (0%)	0mo	$158,000	$131	95
1034 Danby Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-5%)	2mo	$175,000	$152	83
1032 Danby Rd	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-5%)	2mo	$178,000	$155	83
1022 Danby Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,388 (+15%)	23mo	$240,000	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-26,434
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,211
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,190/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $167,995

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $10	+0% $-40	+5% $-89	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-113	+0% $-40	+5% $34	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $5	base $-40	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Spencer Rd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,545	$2.99	46d	8	1.26mi
815 S Aurora St Ithaca, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0	936	$950	$1.01	46d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2001-01-16
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$6,190
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — IBRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $175,000 IBRMLS
• 2001-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,190 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.