12511 County Route 71 · Sackets Harbor, NY 13605

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 2.17 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

With the right vision and improvements, this property could be transformed into a comfortable residence, rental property, or weekend retreat. Incredible location just a stones throw from Henderson Harbor, as you crest the hill on Brodie Rd she's right there in all her glory. Currently there is a 2BR, 1 bath mobile home with large kitchen addition on the property. Home is in need of rehab or start fresh as it does sit on a slab with electric, well & septic. Detached garage with electric and cement floor. A great chance to invest in location and unlock future potential. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Slab with electric
• Detached garage

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN ADDITION
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SLAB WITH ELECTRIC
• WELL AND SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block and poured foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Other features (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.7% in Sackets Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#419 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Belleville-Henderson Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #386 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.70%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $74,146
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.71×
• Total profit: $190,072
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,322/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $640

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $586	+0% $566	+5% $546	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $512	+0% $566	+5% $619	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $584	base $566	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $69,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-16
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,322
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $5,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville-Henderson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,416
• Composite: 42.68/100
• National rank: #3175
• State rank: #386 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sackets Harbor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #7271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $69,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,322 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.