644 San Juan Bay · University, FL 32765

$98,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 398 Days on market

Built 2021 ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. * SELLER MOTIVATED * Welcome Home! This GORGEOUS, ALMOST NEW home features, Beautiful laminate wood floors, SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN, CROWN MOLDING, HIGH CEILINGS, SOLID WOOD CABINETS, ISLAND KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, HUGE MASTER BEDROOM, WALK-IN CLOSET, DOUBLE VANITIES, LOTS of CLOSET STORAGE, SCREENED PORCH, WHEELCHAIR LIFT, IRRIGATION, & more. .. LOCATED CLOSE TO MAJOR SHOPPING, HOSPITALS, RESTAURANTS, & 434. THIS ACTIVE COMMUNITY FEATURES, 55+, CLUBHOUSE, FITNESS, PICKLE BALL, SWIMMING POOL, WHIRLPOOL SPA, BILLIARDS, BOCCE BALL, SHUFFLEBOARD, MINIATURE GOLF, TENNIS, & DAILY SOCIAL EVENTS, BINGO, DANCING, FARMER'S MARKET,

Key facts

• Laminate wood floors
• Irrigation
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORS
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SCREENED PORCH
• IRRIGATION
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided by listing: E. on 434, L Palm Valley, L Needle Palm, L Palm Valley, L San Juan Bay, home on R
• Financial info: Land lease fee applies
• HOA & community: HOA with clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub and recreation facilities; Pickleball, tennis and shuffleboard courts; Maintenance and grounds included; Management and trash service included; Storage, wheelchair access and sidewalks; Association recreation owned; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Community mailbox; Street lights; Golf carts allowed; Handicap modified; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Has attached garage; Has 1-car carport
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One-story; North facing; Owner-reported living area and building area
• Construction: Metal siding, stone and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Model: Skyline
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage; Sidewalk; Paved lot/drive; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer and dryer included); Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.8% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carillon Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #364 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 985 students, 29% FRL); Jackson Heights Middle School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,472 students, 32% FRL); Hagerty High School (math 67% / reading 74%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,495 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 450 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.04%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $380,800
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3452 Kayla Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-2%)	15mo	$315,000	$230	78
3650 Palm Valley Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,279 (-9%)	16mo	$9,750	$8	62
3501 Bermuda Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-9%)	18mo	$95,000	$75	62
3065 Lowery Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$350,000	$272	62
2940 Moore Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,385 (-1%)	14mo	$435,000	$314	53
527 Stillwater Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+4%)	11mo	$455,000	$312	50
4203 Shadow Creek Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	19mo	$415,000	$265	49
652 Carrigan Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+15%)	1mo	$459,900	$286	48
3828 Heritage Oaks Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	22mo	$372,000	$283	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $45,574
• Equity at exit: $14,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $103,298
• Equity at exit: $8,551

Cash invested: $27,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32765

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,062

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $98,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,097	+0% $1,062	+5% $1,028	+10% $994
Rent	-10% $888	-5% $975	+0% $1,062	+5% $1,150	+10% $1,237
Rate	-1.0pp $1,112	-0.5pp $1,088	base $1,062	+0.5pp $1,037	+1.0pp $1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,725
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3404 Kayla Cir Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,495	$1.38	18d	1	0.07mi
3420 Harrow Ln Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.5	1136	$1,995	$1.76	26d	1	0.17mi
3431 Harrow Ln Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,145	$1.89	26d	1	0.17mi
3755 Collingwood Ln Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,200	$1.20	7d	1	0.35mi
116 Reserve Cir #204 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,000	$1.03	26d	1	0.55mi
100 Riverwind Way Oviedo, FL	4.0	4.0	1540	$949	$0.62	26d	1	0.58mi
505 Walnut Grove Pl Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	26d	1	0.62mi
144 Reserve Cir #100 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	17d	1	0.64mi
2980 Grandeville Cir Oviedo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1165	$2,396	$2.06	0d	29	0.66mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	7d	1	0.66mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	13d	1	0.66mi
209 Reserve Cir Unit 101 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,000	$2.05	26d	1	0.66mi
149 Reserve Cir #201 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,499	$1.52	13d	1	0.68mi
2590 Greenhill Way Oviedo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,016	$1.90	0d	17	0.77mi
2352 Sunny View Dr Oviedo, FL	2.0	1.0	1184	$2,000	$1.69	5d	1	1.14mi
2352 Sunny View Dr Oviedo, FL	2.0	1.0	1184	$1,950	$1.65	5d	1	1.14mi
3812 Silverbell Loop Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,450	$1.66	7d	1	1.31mi
1029 Beckstrom Dr Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,465	$1.70	5d	1	1.32mi
4406 Brookstone Ct Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,400	$1.44	5d	1	1.36mi
4647 Lacebark Trl Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$950	$0.64	26d	1	1.37mi
3426 Caruso Pl Oviedo, FL	3.0	3.5	1480	$2,200	$1.49	26d	1	1.42mi
4338 Aristocrat Pt Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,200	$1.49	7d	1	1.43mi
4338 Aristocrat Pt Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,200	$1.49	0d	1	1.43mi
4478 Maidenhair Cv Oviedo, FL	4.0	2.5	1828	$2,200	$1.20	19d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $98,900
3. 2026-03-30
   price $99,900
4. 2026-03-05
   price $104,900
5. 2026-02-12
   price $109,900
6. 2025-12-03
   price $114,900
7. 2025-10-21
   price $119,900
8. 2025-09-27
   price $124,000
9. 2025-08-22
   price $129,000
10. 2025-07-25
    price $134,000
11. 2025-07-12
    price $139,900
12. 2025-06-25
    price $149,900
13. 2025-06-03
    price $159,900
14. 2025-05-17
    price $164,900
15. 2025-04-16
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,540
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable income: $11,882
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,852
• After-tax cash flow: $9,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — University

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #603

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 41,570
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 64,477
• Household income: $102,167
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2059.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.94%
• Current HPI: 315.5484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-41.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $98,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $124,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid