5435 Coles Rd · Elliston, VA 24087

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 3.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Single Wide on 3 Acres. Thge Property has a Detached 2 Car Garage. The Land Lays Great with lots of Wildlife. The Home is on Public Water and has a Septic system. The Home has Been totally remodeled with an updated Kitchen and Bathrooms, Newer Appliances. The Home has a Heat Pump and a gas Log Fireplace in the Living Room. The Home has an additon that could be a second Living room, den or office. The Home has Been Vinyl sided with a shingle roof added.

Key facts

• Vinyl sided
• Gas log fireplace
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• VINYL SIDED
• SHINGLE ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached gravel garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (detached); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Garden access
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 32% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,487 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $108,228
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $305,759
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 483-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $169,000 Active 483-char remark
3. 2026-02-09
   soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$906/yr (+$76/mo · 189.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥93°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $3,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+20.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $169,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.