405 E Brown St · Hearne, TX 77859

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

8,625 sqft lot $65/sqft · 30% below area Est $172k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER, PLEASE TOUR AND SUBMIT ANY OFFERS. Located in Hearne, TX, this home offers great potential and is about 25 minutes from Bryan/College Station and around 20 minutes from Franklin. The home features two nicely sized bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a third room that could easily function as a bedroom, office, or bonus space. The kitchen and living areas are spacious, providing plenty of room for everyday living and gatherings. An additional flex room located toward the back of the home near the kitchen offers even more possibilities and could serve as a second living area, hobby room, or workspace. Outside, you’ll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard and a covered carport in the front for convenient parking. With large rooms and flexible spaces throughout, this property offers plenty of opportunity to make it your own.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ADDITIONAL LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($440/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,806
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -30.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Anderson St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+9%)	12mo	$264,900	$132	46
507 W Hall St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-5%)	15mo	$175,000	$99	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $67,809
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $198,083
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77859

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,704/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $71	+0% $37	+5% $3	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-15	+0% $37	+5% $88	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $67	base $37	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $120,000 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER, PLEASE TOUR AND SUBMIT ANY OFFERS. Located in Hearne, TX, this home offers great potential and is about 25 minutes from Bryan/College Station and around 20 minutes from Franklin. The home features two nicely sized bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a third room that could easily function as a bedroom, office, or bonus space. The kitchen and living areas are spacious, providing plenty of room for everyday living and gatherings. An additional flex room located toward the back of the home near the kitchen offers even more possibilities and could serve as a second living area, hobby room, or workspace. Outside, you’ll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard and a covered carport in the front for convenient parking. With large rooms and flexible spaces throughout, this property offers plenty of opportunity to make it your own.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $130,000 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER, PLEASE TOUR AND SUBMIT ANY OFFERS. Located in Hearne, TX, this home offers great potential and is about 25 minutes from Bryan/College Station and around 20 minutes from Franklin. The home features two nicely sized bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a third room that could easily function as a bedroom, office, or bonus space. The kitchen and living areas are spacious, providing plenty of room for everyday living and gatherings. An additional flex room located toward the back of the home near the kitchen offers even more possibilities and could serve as a second living area, hobby room, or workspace. Outside, you’ll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard and a covered carport in the front for convenient parking. With large rooms and flexible spaces throughout, this property offers plenty of opportunity to make it your own.

3. 2026-04-15
   price $135,000 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER, PLEASE TOUR AND SUBMIT ANY OFFERS. Located in Hearne, TX, this home offers great potential and is about 25 minutes from Bryan/College Station and around 20 minutes from Franklin. The home features two nicely sized bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a third room that could easily function as a bedroom, office, or bonus space. The kitchen and living areas are spacious, providing plenty of room for everyday living and gatherings. An additional flex room located toward the back of the home near the kitchen offers even more possibilities and could serve as a second living area, hobby room, or workspace. Outside, you’ll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard and a covered carport in the front for convenient parking. With large rooms and flexible spaces throughout, this property offers plenty of opportunity to make it your own.

4. 2026-03-08
   listed $140,000 Active 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER, PLEASE TOUR AND SUBMIT ANY OFFERS. Located in Hearne, TX, this home offers great potential and is about 25 minutes from Bryan/College Station and around 20 minutes from Franklin. The home features two nicely sized bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a third room that could easily function as a bedroom, office, or bonus space. The kitchen and living areas are spacious, providing plenty of room for everyday living and gatherings. An additional flex room located toward the back of the home near the kitchen offers even more possibilities and could serve as a second living area, hobby room, or workspace. Outside, you’ll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard and a covered carport in the front for convenient parking. With large rooms and flexible spaces throughout, this property offers plenty of opportunity to make it your own.

5. 2024-05-17
   status Active
6. 2024-04-30
   status Active
7. 2024-04-15
   status Active
8. 2024-04-10
   status Pending
9. 2024-04-10
   listed $128,000 Active
10. 2024-01-27
    status Active
11. 2024-01-12
    status Pending
12. 2024-01-06
    price $128,000
13. 2023-10-09
    listed $140,000 Active
14. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus
15. 2023-06-03
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2023-05-23
    status Pending
17. 2023-05-17
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,704 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,704 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,704
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hearne, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,516

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 29% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.97%
• Current HPI: 177.7117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $120,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $130,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $135,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $140,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-17 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-30 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-15 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-10 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $128,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-01-27 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2024-01-12 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2024-01-06 Price Changed $128,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $140,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-03 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-05-23 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-05-17 Listed $115,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,704 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.