31 Willowemoc Rd · Grahamsville, NY 12758

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1953 0.31 ac lot $299/sqft · at area comps

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated Colonial Cottage located in Beautiful Willowemoc in the Town of Neversink. Easy access from I86/ 17 E/W 2.5 hours from NYC. For the Fly Fisherman there is Public Access for the Willowemoc River a 1/2 mile from the Cottage. This lovely cottage has been renovated with new luxury vinyl floors throughout. New kitchen cabinetry and appliances. New Plumbing, Electric, Bathroom, On Demand Hot Water, Lighting, Refrigerator, Electric Range, as well as Split Unit Heating in both downstairs and up. Wall heating units on Front Porch, Bathroom, Both first floor Bedrooms and the Laundry Room. There is private septic as well as a drilled well. Come see the tranquil beauty of this location.

Key facts

• On demand hot water
• Private septic
• Willowemoc river

Tags

• COLONIAL COTTAGE
• WILLOWEMOC RIVER
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETRY
• ON DEMAND HOT WATER
• SPLIT UNIT HEATING
• PRIVATE SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,099 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,827
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -52.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $129,587
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $386,522
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,940

Max offer price $232,037

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-31	+0% $-102	+5% $-172	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-173	+0% $-102	+5% $-30	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-38	base $-102	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 274 DOM
17. 2025-08-29
    listed $250,000 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Newly renovated Colonial Cottage located in Beautiful Willowemoc in the Town of Neversink. Easy access from I86/ 17 E/W 2.5 hours from NYC. For the Fly Fisherman there is Public Access for the Willowemoc River a 1/2 mile from the Cottage. This lovely cottage has been renovated with new luxury vinyl floors throughout. New kitchen cabinetry and appliances. New Plumbing, Electric, Bathroom, On Demand Hot Water, Lighting, Refrigerator, Electric Range, as well as Split Unit Heating in both downstairs and up. Wall heating units on Front Porch, Bathroom, Both first floor Bedrooms and the Laundry Room. There is private septic as well as a drilled well. Come see the tranquil beauty of this location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,409/yr (+$117/mo · 100.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Grahamsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-29 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · +41.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.