866 Spindrift #866 · San Jose, CA 95134

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Est $339k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Bright and spacious 3/2 in the heart of Silicon Valley . Step into a wide spacious living area with many windows and a wall for a huge TV, and a cozy fireplace The open kitchen showcases a skylight, granite countertops, wood cabinets, a gas stove, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The dining area is next to the to the kitchen making it great for entertaining or family gatherings. The flooring throughout is Luxury Vinyl Planking that is sturdy and beautiful. The spacious primary bedroom suit features a bathroom with an oversized tub and separate shower stall and ample closet. Additional amenities include a newer A/C, central heating and an inside laundry area . The complex includes three communi

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Skylight
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SKYLIGHT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOLS
• CLUB HOUSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Clara Unified (urban): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #75 of 517 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 20 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
866 Spindrift Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	13mo	$339,000	$217	89
708 Spindrift Dr #708	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	4mo	$269,000	$179	85
739 Spindrift Dr #739	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,558 (-0%)	14mo	$310,000	$199	84
108 El Bosque Dr #108	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	5mo	$310,000	$199	83
710 Spindrift #710	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+6%)	12mo	$360,000	$218	77
304 Los Encinos St #304	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$390,000	$271	75
777 Spindrift Pl #777	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	4mo	$250,000	$174	74
270 El Bosque Dr #270	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-2%)	10mo	$410,000	$269	70
316 Los Encinos St #316	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$315,000	$219	68
462 Los Encinos St #462	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	14mo	$290,000	$201	66
626 Hermitage St #626	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	5mo	$250,000	$186	61
208 El Bosque Dr #208	0.20mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,464 (-6%)	13mo	$399,000	$273	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.15% appreciation · 5.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $82,954
• Equity at exit: $56,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $281,815
• Equity at exit: $46,040

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95134

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$995
• Net cashflow: $1,669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,876	-5% $1,773	+0% $1,669	+5% $1,565	+10% $1,462
Rent	-10% $1,295	-5% $1,482	+0% $1,669	+5% $1,856	+10% $2,043
Rate	-1.0pp $1,820	-0.5pp $1,745	base $1,669	+0.5pp $1,591	+1.0pp $1,512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Baypointe Pkwy San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$4,129	$4.64	2d	8	0.29mi
3700 Casa Verde St San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$4,851	$4.90	2d	18	0.31mi
3500 Palmilla Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$7,040	$6.54	2d	72	0.67mi
1 Vista Montana San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$5,013	$4.23	2d	7	0.74mi
501 Murphy Ranch Rd Milpitas, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$4,782	$4.22	0d	18	0.74mi
1529 Coyote Creek Way Unit 1529 Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$4,500	$3.07	2d	1	0.75mi
1405 Coyote Creek Way Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$4,700	$3.43	45d	1	0.79mi
32 Torregata Loop San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1130	$3,800	$3.36	15d	1	0.88mi
99 Vista Montana San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1085	$4,713	$4.34	2d	20	0.90mi
3401 Iron Point Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$5,139	$5.65	2d	23	0.98mi
250 Brandon St San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$5,310	$5.67	2d	40	1.00mi
310 Crescent Village Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$5,345	$5.45	2d	69	1.05mi
4516 Carlyle Ct #582 Santa Clara, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$6,060	$4.51	15d	1	1.09mi
4343 Renaissance Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$4,305	$5.06	2d	12	1.14mi
4500 Carlyle Ct Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$4,963	$4.86	2d	10	1.17mi
1600 Nantucket Cir Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$4,300	$4.82	4d	8	1.17mi
1625 Nantucket Cir #515 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	1051	$4,050	$3.85	13d	1	1.18mi
502 Mansion Park Dr Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,369	$5.60	2d	13	1.28mi
2230 Calle Del Mundo Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$4,919	$6.14	3d	9	1.30mi
373 River Oaks Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$4,147	$4.42	2d	3	1.36mi
415 Camille Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1561	$4,009	$2.57	13d	1	1.37mi
405 Camille Cir San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	2029	$5,070	$2.50	45d	1	1.39mi
4028 Fitzpatrick Way Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.5	1437	$4,100	$2.85	15d	1	1.39mi
5150 Calle del Sol Santa Clara, CA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1357	$13,431	$9.90	3d	89	1.41mi
4424 Headen Way Santa Clara, CA	3.0	2.5	1716	$5,400	$3.15	24d	1	1.42mi
1650 Hope Dr Santa Clara, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$4,695	$4.61	2d	10	1.46mi
3901 Lick Mill Blvd #1576 Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$3,720	$3.63	3d	2	1.46mi
2333 Calle del Mundo Santa Clara, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$6,214	$6.27	3d	15	1.49mi
345 Village Center Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$4,541	$5.17	2d	19	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   historical
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $300,000 Active
4. 2026-02-24
   price
5. 2026-02-18
   price
6. 2026-02-12
   price
7. 2026-01-14
   listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,548
• − Management: −$4,548
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $16,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,892
• After-tax cash flow: $16,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Clara Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635430
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $97,320
• Composite: 53.46/100
• National rank: #1459
• State rank: #75 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,471
• Household income: $203,649
• Rent vs Own: 86.2% rent · 13.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 921.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 63% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 65% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Other Indo-European 28% Other Asian/Pacific 14% Chinese 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.15%
• Current HPI: 276.0008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.94%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $300,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-14 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR