4911 Amelia Ln · Donna, TX 78537

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 360 Days on market

Built 1999 0.50 ac lot $94/sqft · 23% below area Est $176k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three-bedroom, one and half bathroom house with an attached front entry carport is available for sale. The home sits on a spacious half acre fenced lot with mature trees. Come put your personal touches on this "fixer upper" home and make it your own.This small and quiet neighborhood is only 1.5 miles north of I-2, offering quick access to East and West bound traffic. Several chain fast food restaurants, grocery food, convenience stores and gas services are readily available.

Key facts

• Quick access
• Quiet neighborhood
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• QUICK ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($349/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Donna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,411 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,293
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -23.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4530 N Val Verde Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-1%)	24mo	$230,000	$162	66
4616 Hernandez Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-13%)	10mo	$190,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $75,419
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $220,727
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,500/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $67	+0% $29	+5% $-9	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-21	+0% $29	+5% $79	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $63	base $29	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 343 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 342 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 341 DOM
17. 2025-06-23
    listed $135,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    This three-bedroom, one and half bathroom house with an attached front entry carport is available for sale. The home sits on a spacious half acre fenced lot with mature trees. Come put your personal touches on this "fixer upper" home and make it your own.This small and quiet neighborhood is only 1.5 miles north of I-2, offering quick access to East and West bound traffic. Several chain fast food restaurants, grocery food, convenience stores and gas services are readily available.

18. 2025-06-18
    soldstatus
19. 2025-05-05
    status Active
20. 2025-01-29
    status Pending
21. 2025-01-21
    historical Option
22. 2024-11-20
    price $115,000
23. 2024-08-02
    listed $120,000 Active
24. 2024-04-04
    price $120,000
25. 2024-01-31
    listed $125,000 Active
26. 2023-11-06
    price $125,000
27. 2023-08-24
    listed $130,000 Active
28. 2007-08-30
    soldstatus
29. 1993-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,500
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$452
• After-tax cash flow: $801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Donna

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1411
• US rank: #24172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 51,346
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-05 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-29 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-21 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-01-31 Listed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-08-24 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2007-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,500 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.