1107 Mary Ashby Way · Pennington, NJ 08534

$415,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Townhouse · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $360/sqft · at area comps Est $427k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This loft-style home features a contemporary open layout in the kitchen and combined living and dining rooms, with a deck entrance for outdoor living. Near the foyer is a convenient bedroom, while the owner's suite is tucked away in the back.

Key facts

• Deck entrance
• Open layout
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• DECK ENTRANCE
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $416k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-833 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (37.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Toll Gate Grammar School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 310 students, 2% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($366k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,490 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,428
• List price: $415,990
• Delta: -2.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Mary Ashby Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	3mo	$375,000	$296	75
62 Woolsey Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	5mo	$386,000	$323	70
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	2mo	$425,000	$356	70
122 Woolsey Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	11mo	$380,000	$318	67
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	8mo	$397,500	$333	65
88 Woolsey Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	20mo	$409,000	$343	58
8 Academy Ct	0.21mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (-11%)	7mo	$379,000	$367	58
14 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	19mo	$370,000	$310	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-127,982
• Equity at exit: $62,025

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-208,857
• Equity at exit: $35,967

Cash invested: $116,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $423,490 ($340/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08534

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,181
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,240/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,639

Max offer price $295,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-545	-5% $-689	+0% $-833	+5% $-976	+10% $-1,120
Rent	-10% $-1,037	-5% $-935	+0% $-833	+5% $-731	+10% $-629
Rate	-1.0pp $-623	-0.5pp $-727	base $-833	+0.5pp $-941	+1.0pp $-1,050

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,998
• Closing costs: $12,480
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1107 Mary Ashby Way, Hopewell Township, NJ 08534Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $409,990

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction, Acadia plan
• Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 1,156

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $415,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $415,990 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $415,990 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $415,990 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $415,990 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $415,990 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $415,990 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $415,990 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $415,990 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $415,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $415,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $415,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $415,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $425,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $425,990 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $425,990 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $430,990 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $430,990 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $430,990 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $430,990 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $430,990 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $430,990 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $430,990 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $430,990 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $430,990 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $430,990 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $430,990 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $430,990 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $430,990 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $430,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $430,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $430,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $430,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $430,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $430,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $430,990 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $430,990 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $430,990 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $430,990 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $430,990 Active 76 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $430,990 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $430,990 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $430,990 Active 73 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $430,990 Active 72 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $428,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $428,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $428,990 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $428,990 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $428,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $428,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,302
• − Property taxes: −$6,240
• − Insurance: −$2,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − Depreciation: −$12,102
• Taxable loss: −$17,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a contemporary open layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Toll Gate Grammar School D NJ #256/1,303 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Timberlane Middle School B- NJ #68/431 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Hopewell Valley Central High School C NJ #67/399 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Pennington

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pennington, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 13,272
• Household income: $175,573
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
• Current HPI: 234.5759
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1107 Mary Ashby Way, Hopewell Township, NJ 08534Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $409,990

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction, Acadia plan
• Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 1,156