406 Kettering Way · Lakeside, FL 32073

$120,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · Condo public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1975 $324/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bedroom with 1 and 1/2 baths Condo.Close to a shopping area and resturants. Fenced in court yard area in rear of condo.Laminated flooring downstairs.Carpet upstairs.Baths and kitchen are tiled.Would be a great investment property already tenant occupied for a good income.

Key facts

• $324 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $324

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; 2 total stories; Attached property; Residential use
• Exterior features: Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-17,436
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-23,735
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32073

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$324
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $134	+0% $100	+5% $66	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $38	+0% $100	+5% $161	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $130	base $100	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Kettering Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,600	$1.26	8d	1	0.04mi
2299 Constitution Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,200	$1.50	21d	1	0.64mi
2939 Lakeside Villa Dr Unit G Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	24d	1	0.84mi
2150 Spencer Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,304	$1.14	3d	4	0.84mi
599 Richard Lee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,795	$1.23	13d	1	0.87mi
1800 Kingsley Ave Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	24d	1	0.89mi
2300 Twelve Oaks Dr Unit F2 Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,299	$1.28	8d	1	0.95mi
222 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	3d	9	1.05mi
295 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	3d	1	1.22mi
417 Gano Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,900	$1.40	24d	1	1.31mi
495 Sigsbee Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,675	$1.34	24d	1	1.42mi
220 Woodside Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $324 · $3,888/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2026-04-09
   price $120,000
4. 2017-07-26
   soldstatus $53,500 Sold 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Cute 2 bedroom with 1 and 1/2 baths Condo.Close to a shopping area and resturants. Fenced in court yard area in rear of condo.Laminated flooring downstairs.Carpet upstairs.Baths and kitchen are tiled.Would be a great investment property already tenant occupied for a good income.

5. 2017-07-18
   soldstatus $57,000
6. 2017-07-03
   status Pending 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Cute 2 bedroom with 1 and 1/2 baths Condo.Close to a shopping area and resturants. Fenced in court yard area in rear of condo.Laminated flooring downstairs.Carpet upstairs.Baths and kitchen are tiled.Would be a great investment property already tenant occupied for a good income.

7. 2017-06-27
   listed $60,000 Active 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Cute 2 bedroom with 1 and 1/2 baths Condo.Close to a shopping area and resturants. Fenced in court yard area in rear of condo.Laminated flooring downstairs.Carpet upstairs.Baths and kitchen are tiled.Would be a great investment property already tenant occupied for a good income.

8. 2011-01-28
   historical 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   HOME IS RENTED! You will LOVE it, pristine, cozy end unit, totally updated with wood laminate floors in living & dining, new tile kitchen, Oak cabs, new appliances include washer & Dryer, new light fixture & bath fixtures, new sliding doors to private ''have a cup of coffee patio'', easy walk to pool club next door....assoc. fees include all yard work and sprinkling, pest control, exterior maintenance of building/roof, garbage pickup, club and pool. Low 4.5 interest rates make this so affordable, location perfect!

9. 2010-09-23
   listed $59,000 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   HOME IS RENTED! You will LOVE it, pristine, cozy end unit, totally updated with wood laminate floors in living & dining, new tile kitchen, Oak cabs, new appliances include washer & Dryer, new light fixture & bath fixtures, new sliding doors to private ''have a cup of coffee patio'', easy walk to pool club next door....assoc. fees include all yard work and sprinkling, pest control, exterior maintenance of building/roof, garbage pickup, club and pool. Low 4.5 interest rates make this so affordable, location perfect!

10. 2010-09-12
    historical
11. 2010-03-13
    listed $89,000
12. 2010-03-07
    historical
13. 2009-08-28
    listed $94,500
14. 1996-10-30
    soldstatus $44,000
15. 1977-03-01
    soldstatus $1,022,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − HOA: −$3,888
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,561
• Household income: $76,455
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1544.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.76%
• Current HPI: 289.8735
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-88.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $120,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $120,000 realMLS
• 2017-07-26 Sold (MLS) $53,500 realMLS
• 2017-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2017-06-27 Listed $60,000 realMLS
• 2011-01-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-09-23 Listed $59,000 realMLS
• 2010-09-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-03-13 Listed $89,000 realMLS
• 2010-03-07 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-08-28 Listed $94,500 realMLS
• 1996-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1977-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,022,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.