15 Hidden Noll Rd · Schlusser, PA 17013

$114,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Eagle River Chesapeake Model features 3 bedrooms and two great baths. Fully entertaining and 8 foot flat sheet-rocked give this home the residential construction your looking for. Island seating and full pantry in the kitchen allow ceilings large groups. Walk-in closets in the master bedroom and a corner shower in the master bath round out the home. Rent to Own may be considered on this model. Call for de

Key facts

• Beautiful deck
• Gazebo
• Peaceful hillside

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL DECK
• GAZEBO
• NICE BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL HILLSIDE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished living area reported by assessor
• Financial info: Ground rent $660 monthly; Annual ground rent listed in income/expense information

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel
• Home design: Manufactured property; Modular/Manufactured construction
• Construction: Manufactured structure
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent exists (monthly)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.0% in Schlusser — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,058 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carlisle Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.67%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $29,487
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $85,187
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $835	-5% $802	+0% $769	+5% $737	+10% $704
Rent	-10% $614	-5% $692	+0% $769	+5% $847	+10% $925
Rate	-1.0pp $827	-0.5pp $799	base $769	+0.5pp $740	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Heather Dr Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.05mi
130 Imperial Ct Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,650	$1.45	44d	1	0.18mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	14d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $114,999 Active
3. 2020-03-06
   soldstatus $84,500 Closed 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This Eagle River Chesapeake Model features 3 bedrooms and two great baths. Fully entertaining and 8 foot flat sheet-rocked give this home the residential construction your looking for. Island seating and full pantry in the kitchen allow ceilings large groups. Walk-in closets in the master bedroom and a corner shower in the master bath round out the home. Rent to Own may be considered on this model. Call for de

4. 2020-02-19
   status Pending 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This Eagle River Chesapeake Model features 3 bedrooms and two great baths. Fully entertaining and 8 foot flat sheet-rocked give this home the residential construction your looking for. Island seating and full pantry in the kitchen allow ceilings large groups. Walk-in closets in the master bedroom and a corner shower in the master bath round out the home. Rent to Own may be considered on this model. Call for de

5. 2019-11-20
   price $84,500 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This Eagle River Chesapeake Model features 3 bedrooms and two great baths. Fully entertaining and 8 foot flat sheet-rocked give this home the residential construction your looking for. Island seating and full pantry in the kitchen allow ceilings large groups. Walk-in closets in the master bedroom and a corner shower in the master bath round out the home. Rent to Own may be considered on this model. Call for de

6. 2019-07-12
   listed $85,000 Active 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This Eagle River Chesapeake Model features 3 bedrooms and two great baths. Fully entertaining and 8 foot flat sheet-rocked give this home the residential construction your looking for. Island seating and full pantry in the kitchen allow ceilings large groups. Walk-in closets in the master bedroom and a corner shower in the master bath round out the home. Rent to Own may be considered on this model. Call for de

7. 2019-06-10
   historical
8. 2018-06-11
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,575 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,887
• After-tax cash flow: $7,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — Schlusser

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1058
• US rank: #11941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schlusser, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 37,738
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+35.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $114,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-06 Sold (MLS) $84,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-20 Price Changed $84,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-11 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,575 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.