459 Red Cedar Dr #80 · Redding, CA 96003

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1979 $52/sqft · 8% above area Est $91k · 8% over ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious triple-wide manufactured home featuring an expansive open-concept living and dining area. Classic 1970s charm with warm wood accents and large windows that fill the home with natural light. Abundant cabinetry throughout provides generous storage. New carpet just installed. Refrigerator, oven/range, washer/dryer, microwave included. Central heating and air-conditioning. Storage shed.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Natural light
• Storage shed

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CENTRAL HEATING
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.50%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,297
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 8.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
466 Balsawood Dr #108	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,900 (-1%)	2mo	$125,400	$66	94
475 Red Cedar Dr #82	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,840 (-4%)	9mo	$108,000	$59	85
4785 Underwood Dr #249	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,780 (-7%)	8mo	$134,000	$75	74
4552 Fairywood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,968 (+2%)	11mo	$137,000	$70	70
360 Sapwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-8%)	5mo	$12,000	$7	67
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,632 (-15%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	66
475 Red Cedar Dr Unit The Redwoods	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,728 (-10%)	20mo	$120,000	$69	66
4617 Underwood Dr Sp#259 Dr Unit Redwoods MHP	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-4%)	16mo	$117,500	$64	64
4726 Maple Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-11%)	7mo	$148,000	$86	60
4518 Chippewa Ln #290	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,760 (-8%)	12mo	$98,000	$56	55
4688 Fairywood Drive Dr #154	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-10%)	22mo	$125,000	$72	54
1401 Menomenee Ln #281	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-12%)	5mo	$71,000	$42	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $43,651
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $133,311
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $911	-5% $877	+0% $843	+5% $809	+10% $775
Rent	-10% $690	-5% $767	+0% $843	+5% $919	+10% $996
Rate	-1.0pp $893	-0.5pp $868	base $843	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	14d	1	0.28mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$1,700	$1.33	14d	4	1.31mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.36mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.38mi
550 Mission de Oro Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,995	$1.40	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $99,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home featuring an expansive open-concept living and dining area. Classic 1970s charm with warm wood accents and large windows that fill the home with natural light. Abundant cabinetry throughout provides generous storage. New carpet just installed. Refrigerator, oven/range, washer/dryer, microwave included. Central heating and air-conditioning. Storage shed.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $109,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home featuring an expansive open-concept living and dining area. Classic 1970s charm with warm wood accents and large windows that fill the home with natural light. Abundant cabinetry throughout provides generous storage. New carpet just installed. Refrigerator, oven/range, washer/dryer, microwave included. Central heating and air-conditioning. Storage shed.

20. 2026-03-13
    price $129,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home featuring an expansive open-concept living and dining area. Classic 1970s charm with warm wood accents and large windows that fill the home with natural light. Abundant cabinetry throughout provides generous storage. New carpet just installed. Refrigerator, oven/range, washer/dryer, microwave included. Central heating and air-conditioning. Storage shed.

21. 2026-02-10
    listed $139,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home featuring an expansive open-concept living and dining area. Classic 1970s charm with warm wood accents and large windows that fill the home with natural light. Abundant cabinetry throughout provides generous storage. New carpet just installed. Refrigerator, oven/range, washer/dryer, microwave included. Central heating and air-conditioning. Storage shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $9,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $7,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $99,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $109,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $129,000 SAOR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $139,900 SAOR

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $138 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.