161 Hickory Gate Dr · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Manufactured public records · 331 Days on market

Built 1981 3,751 sqft lot Est $145k · 17% over $230/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice double-wide mobile home in 55+ community. House has some newer appliances, solid surface kitchen counter, a/c new in 2014, roof-over, siding, large screened porch. Dishwasher sold "as is". House is nicely furnished. Blue Jay has a very active social club with lots of planned activities, shuffleboard, Bocce courts, heated pool and beautiful clubhouse. If you have a boat or RV, you can request a space in the RV lot. No additional fee. Space assigned as available. Near beaches, airports, shopping and medical centers.

Key facts

• Non flood zone
• Eat in kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NON FLOOD ZONE
• OWN YOUR LAND
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• BUILT IN BUFFET
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees: $2,760
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Resource Property Mgt); Monthly condo/association fee: $230; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, wheelchair access; Association fee covers: common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, private road, sewer, trash, water; Buyer/association approval required; Community features include deed restrictions, sidewalks, and street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 15 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over
• Exterior features: Covered, screened side porch; Awnings; Sidewalk; Shed(s); Gunite heated in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $169k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.14%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,540
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Pinebark Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+2%)	2mo	$188,000	$168	89
159 Hickory Gate Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	984 (-10%)	2mo	$106,000	$108	80
177 Hickory Gate Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	974 (-11%)	8mo	$129,000	$132	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,881
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,877
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $498/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,000	$1.42	4d	1	0.22mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	24d	1	0.23mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	24d	1	0.25mi
3610 Sammy Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	797	$2,000	$2.51	4d	1	0.27mi
2879 Thaxton Dr #55 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$2,200	$1.58	4d	1	0.28mi
2897 Thaxton Dr #65 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,280	$1.64	4d	1	0.30mi
762 Barbara St Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1146	$2,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.31mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	24d	1	0.31mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	8d	1	0.33mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	4d	1	0.42mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	14d	1	0.47mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	14d	1	0.47mi
2682 Rachel Ct Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	3d	1	0.48mi
2678 Markham Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,999	$2.17	24d	1	0.51mi
692 Bellingham Pl Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,800	$2.12	4d	1	0.51mi
3751 Mackenzie Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,650	$2.28	2d	1	0.54mi
650 Bellingham Pl Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,200	$2.42	4d	1	0.57mi
3781 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,500	$2.37	24d	1	0.58mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	24d	1	0.69mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	15d	1	0.69mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	18d	1	0.69mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	24d	1	0.72mi
3028 Bonaventure Cir #103 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.75mi
2803 Northcote Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	22d	1	0.78mi
2998 Bonaventure Cir #104 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,828	$2.03	4d	1	0.87mi
3975 Country Place Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,637	$2.08	2d	16	0.90mi
220 Calibre Downs Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$2,299	$2.19	24d	13	0.90mi
2705 5th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	4d	1	1.04mi
2607 6th Ct Unit 1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,795	$1.34	24d	1	1.09mi
373 Majesty Dr Unit 373 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
2712 14th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,050	$1.53	24d	1	1.12mi
2605 10th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,950	$1.45	24d	1	1.16mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	24d	1	1.18mi
4000 Poinciana Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	3d	1	1.19mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	24d	1	1.19mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	24d	1	1.21mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	18d	1	1.23mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	4d	1	1.24mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	18d	1	1.27mi
103 Palmetto Ct #103 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 330 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 326 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 314 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-04-07
    status Active
14. 2026-04-03
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-06
    price $169,000
16. 2025-12-30
    status Active
17. 2025-12-16
    historical
18. 2025-07-04
    listed $172,000 Active
19. 2017-05-05
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Very nice double-wide mobile home in 55+ community. House has some newer appliances, solid surface kitchen counter, a/c new in 2014, roof-over, siding, large screened porch. Dishwasher sold "as is". House is nicely furnished. Blue Jay has a very active social club with lots of planned activities, shuffleboard, Bocce courts, heated pool and beautiful clubhouse. If you have a boat or RV, you can request a space in the RV lot. No additional fee. Space assigned as available. Near beaches, airports, shopping and medical centers.

20. 2017-04-07
    status Pending 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Very nice double-wide mobile home in 55+ community. House has some newer appliances, solid surface kitchen counter, a/c new in 2014, roof-over, siding, large screened porch. Dishwasher sold "as is". House is nicely furnished. Blue Jay has a very active social club with lots of planned activities, shuffleboard, Bocce courts, heated pool and beautiful clubhouse. If you have a boat or RV, you can request a space in the RV lot. No additional fee. Space assigned as available. Near beaches, airports, shopping and medical centers.

21. 2017-03-10
    listed $86,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Very nice double-wide mobile home in 55+ community. House has some newer appliances, solid surface kitchen counter, a/c new in 2014, roof-over, siding, large screened porch. Dishwasher sold "as is". House is nicely furnished. Blue Jay has a very active social club with lots of planned activities, shuffleboard, Bocce courts, heated pool and beautiful clubhouse. If you have a boat or RV, you can request a space in the RV lot. No additional fee. Space assigned as available. Near beaches, airports, shopping and medical centers.

22. 1982-01-01
    soldstatus $10,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $498 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$905/yr (+$75/mo · 181.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$498
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $2,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $4,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1525.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-04 Listed $172,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-05 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-10 Listed $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,400 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $498 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.