206 Van Buren · Centralia, WA 98531

$210,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1926 6,098 sqft lot $197/sqft · 34% below area Est $316k · 34% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

wonderfully priced 2-bedroom home with good bones needs a little TLC, paint, and cosmetic work. The area has never flooded and close to town and amenities. Home has new roof and single car garage with a separate storage shed or small workshop included. Home also has a nice, covered porch to enjoy on a summer night. Come check it out, because at this price it won't last long on the market.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Newer roof
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• COVERED PORCH
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centralia Middle School (549 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 65% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,913 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,274
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -33.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 S Pearl St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,065 (+0%)	8mo	$355,000	$333	79
1112 Grand Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,116 (+5%)	15mo	$150,000	$134	73
1006 S Gold St	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+5%)	10mo	$35,000	$31	71
804 S Gold St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-5%)	2mo	$373,000	$370	71
500 South St	0.34mi	2/1.0	975 (-8%)	2mo	$312,500	$321	68
600 S Diamond St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,067 (+0%)	5mo	$324,900	$304	66
1240 S Tower Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	982 (-8%)	6mo	$305,000	$311	66
623 Jefferson St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,102 (+4%)	1mo	$355,000	$322	64
909 Goff St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+6%)	13mo	$335,000	$297	63
625 S Gold St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-5%)	6mo	$340,000	$337	62
423 Jefferson St	0.42mi	2/1.0	923 (-13%)	6mo	$307,500	$333	53
709 W Plum St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-10%)	5mo	$305,000	$318	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,545
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-45,978
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $189,276

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-58	+0% $-117	+5% $-177	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-179	+0% $-117	+5% $-56	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-64	base $-117	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1111 Grand Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	45d	1	0.12mi
1107 Woodland Ave Unit B208 Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	790	$1,395	$1.77	45d	1	0.35mi
507 S Rock St Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	45d	1	0.64mi
609 S Washington Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,300	$1.82	45d	1	0.64mi
401 N Ash St Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,625	$2.27	15d	2	1.16mi
1405 Lewis St Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	15d	1	1.18mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	45d	1	1.30mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   status $210,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $210,000 Pending 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $218,000
18. 2026-04-21
    price $239,900
19. 2026-03-27
    price $244,900
20. 2026-03-12
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $-175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $218,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $239,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $244,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,828 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.