101 Covered Creek Dr · Nocatee, FL 32081

$404,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2018 4,791 sqft lot $314/sqft · 12% below area Est $462k · 12% under $245/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate 2BR/2BA home with an open floor plan, thoughtful architecture and meticulous maintenance on a beautiful preserve homesite. Nestled on tree-lined streets in a guard-gated Del Webb active-adult community, this residence offers easy, low-maintenance living and a lifestyle-first location. Enjoy every amenity the community offers and quick golf-cart access to top-rated restaurants and shopping. Less than 4 miles to the ocean--perfect for seaside days and vibrant social living. Don't miss this turnkey opportunity.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Riverwood by Del Webb association; Monthly association fee of $245; One-time association fee of $3,000; CDD fee applicable; On-site management; Gated community; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Pickleball courts; Tennis courts; Spa/Hot Tub; Sauna; Jogging path; Security; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage; Gated access
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Located on a private road
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (49.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (49.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $819 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,625 (49.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.88%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,678
• List price: $404,900
• Delta: -12.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
264 Wood Pond Loop	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,290 (0%)	12mo	$398,000	$309	78
35 Covered Creek Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+14%)	3mo	$437,500	$298	71
198 Forest Spring Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	3mo	$439,000	$308	67
852 Tree Side Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,290 (0%)	20mo	$420,000	$326	67
282 Forest Spring Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,348 (+4%)	11mo	$400,000	$297	66
129 Woodbriar Rd	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,348 (+4%)	19mo	$454,000	$337	60
138 Canopy Oak Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	2mo	$475,000	$333	56
318 Wood Pond Loop	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,433 (+11%)	14mo	$435,000	$304	55
99 Woodbriar Rd	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	12mo	$460,000	$323	54
53 Woodbriar Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	16mo	$454,575	$319	50
950 Tree Side Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+14%)	17mo	$460,000	$313	44
22 Broadhaven Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,483 (+15%)	7mo	$442,000	$298	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-97,027
• Equity at exit: $107,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-151,287
• Equity at exit: $121,956

Cash invested: $113,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,123
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,326/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,984

Max offer price $206,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-893	-5% $-1,008	+0% $-1,122	+5% $-1,237	+10% $-1,352
Rent	-10% $-1,325	-5% $-1,224	+0% $-1,122	+5% $-1,021	+10% $-920
Rate	-1.0pp $-918	-0.5pp $-1,019	base $-1,122	+0.5pp $-1,227	+1.0pp $-1,334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,225
• Closing costs: $12,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Curved Bay Trl Ponte Vedra, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,000	$1.99	18d	1	0.90mi
610 Orchard Pass Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,750	$1.89	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $404,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $414,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $414,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $414,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $414,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $414,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $414,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $414,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $414,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $414,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $422,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $422,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $422,900 Active 524-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,326 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,326 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,681
• − Property taxes: −$7,326
• − Insurance: −$2,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,461
• − Management: −$2,461
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$11,779
• Taxable loss: −$20,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $404,900 realMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $414,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $422,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,326 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.