18 & 20 Church Rd · Mountain Dale, NY 12763

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1939 Fair condition 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Two separate year-round homes are included in the sale! Live in one cottage and rent the other - or get income from both. The property has a delightful country feel with open space, woods, fenced garden, landscaping and a large driveway. Unit number #18 (right side) has a deck, enclosed screened-in porch, living room, eat-in-kitchen, full bath and one bedroom. The wall between the two bedrooms of this cottage was removed to accommodate a larger bedroom and attached office. Unit #20 (left side) has an enclosed screened-in porch, living room, kitchen, dining, two bedrooms. full bath and two separate entrances. Each home has their own electric meters and oil tanks. Both cottages are currently

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Fenced garden
• Landscaping

Tags

• FENCED GARDEN
• ENCLOSED ENTRY PORCH
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Propane available; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable connected; Private trash collection; Fuel tank(s) on site
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (duplex)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Deck; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Mountaindale Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,520	22mo	$195,000	$128	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $197,329
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $554,121
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12763

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,300
Total (2 units)			$3,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $1,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $6,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior painting and siding repair, flooring replacement, interior painting, landscaping and fencing repair. These updates will significantly increase the property's value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping, indicating a need for repainting and possibly repainting.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and may need replacement.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and need repainting.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major fencing — The fencing around the property is in poor condition and may need repair or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value.
• Both exterior painting and siding repair — Repainting and repairing the siding will improve the appearance and increase the property's value.
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the worn flooring will improve the interior condition and increase the property's value.
• Both interior painting — Repainting the interior walls will improve the appearance and increase the property's value.
• Both landscaping and fencing repair — Trimming the landscaping and repairing the fencing will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping, indicating a need for repainting and possibly repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and need repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · The fencing around the property is in poor condition and may need repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value. ↑
• Both exterior painting and siding repair — Repainting and repairing the siding will improve the appearance and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the worn flooring will improve the interior condition and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both interior painting — Repainting the interior walls will improve the appearance and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both landscaping and fencing repair — Trimming the landscaping and repairing the fencing will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Dale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Dale, NY
• City population: 615
• Population (ZIP): 615

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 7% Serbian 6%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.02%
• Current HPI: 511.9161
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid