14321 Forest Cir E · Montgomery, TX 77356

$185,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1998 $161/sqft · 12% above area Est $165k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There are 2 Tax ID Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08801 Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08800 Flexible space , over 1/2 Acre corner lot, no restrictions! Home plus hookups for another RV or Home. High ceilings in the living room, and an extra room which can be used as an additional living area, office, study, or media room. The carport is set up for trailer or RV with water and sewer hookup. (R/V trailer not included.) New metal roof has recently been installed on the main home and covered porch, along with a new deck and recent kitchen finishes. Covered back porch provides additional space for outdoor activities, entertaining, and summer parties. There are 2 Kitchens and 2 Living rooms and 1 Storage room Attached to the back of the house outside.

Key facts

• 2 kitchens
• 1 storage room
• 2 living rooms

Tags

• 2 KITCHENS
• 2 LIVING ROOMS
• 1 STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,900
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 12.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,505
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,061
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $434	+0% $370	+5% $306	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $287	+0% $370	+5% $452	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $417	base $370	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-03-08
    price $185,000 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    There are 2 Tax ID Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08801 Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08800 Flexible space , over 1/2 Acre corner lot, no restrictions! Home plus hookups for another RV or Home. High ceilings in the living room, and an extra room which can be used as an additional living area, office, study, or media room. The carport is set up for trailer or RV with water and sewer hookup. (R/V trailer not included.) New metal roof has recently been installed on the main home and covered porch, along with a new deck and recent kitchen finishes. Covered back porch provides additional space for outdoor activities, entertaining, and summer parties. There are 2 Kitchens and 2 Living rooms and 1 Storage room Attached to the back of the house outside.

16. 2025-11-25
    listed $195,000 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    There are 2 Tax ID Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08801 Tax Office ID: 7325-02-08800 Flexible space , over 1/2 Acre corner lot, no restrictions! Home plus hookups for another RV or Home. High ceilings in the living room, and an extra room which can be used as an additional living area, office, study, or media room. The carport is set up for trailer or RV with water and sewer hookup. (R/V trailer not included.) New metal roof has recently been installed on the main home and covered porch, along with a new deck and recent kitchen finishes. Covered back porch provides additional space for outdoor activities, entertaining, and summer parties. There are 2 Kitchens and 2 Living rooms and 1 Storage room Attached to the back of the house outside.

17. 2021-03-06
    historical
18. 2020-11-01
    price $135,000
19. 2020-09-25
    listed $141,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $4,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-01 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $141,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $311 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.