2203 Colony Dr · Hondo, TX 78861

$95,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1980 10,846 sqft lot $78/sqft · 47% below area Est $181k · 47% under ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you have been looking for a fixer upper, look here. This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom brick home has a great overall start and needs some renovation including new flooring, appliances and possible more. Visit today! RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.4% in Hondo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#872 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meyer El (446 students, 84% FRL); Mcdowell Middle (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 420 students, 63% FRL); Hondo H S (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 522 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 27% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,146 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.16%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,921
• List price: $95,900
• Delta: -46.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2303 Westwood Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+2%)	20mo	$219,000	$175	72
2308 Westwood Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,276 (+4%)	18mo	$185,000	$145	70
1702 17th	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+6%)	9mo	$265,000	$205	67
1409 21st St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+11%)	4mo	$225,000	$166	50
1503 12th	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,063 (-13%)	7mo	$32,000	$30	45
1706 24th	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,345 (+10%)	5mo	$239,900	$178	42
2105 Avenue P	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+6%)	23mo	$249,900	$192	41
2801 Southern Breeze	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	12mo	$65,000	$48	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,224
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,033
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78861

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,178/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $187	+0% $160	+5% $133	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $112	+0% $160	+5% $209	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $185	base $160	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 14th St Unit 14 Hondo, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	46d	1	0.21mi
502 22nd St Hondo, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	46d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $95,900 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,900 Price Change 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,900 Price Change 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,900 Price Change 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,900 Price Change 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   pricestatusdays on market $95,900 Price Change 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $105,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $105,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $105,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $105,900 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    If you have been looking for a fixer upper, look here. This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom brick home has a great overall start and needs some renovation including new flooring, appliances and possible more. Visit today! RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

11. 2026-04-28
    price $119,400 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    If you have been looking for a fixer upper, look here. This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom brick home has a great overall start and needs some renovation including new flooring, appliances and possible more. Visit today! RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

12. 2026-04-08
    listed $140,100 New 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    If you have been looking for a fixer upper, look here. This 3-bedroom, 1 bathroom brick home has a great overall start and needs some renovation including new flooring, appliances and possible more. Visit today! RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,178 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,178 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$3,178
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $532
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hondo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #15726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hondo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,715

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 209.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $105,900 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $119,400 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,100 LERA

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,178 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.