202 W Birch Ave · Wilburton, OK 74578

$110,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $140k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5 bed 1/1.2 baths. Metal roof that was installed in 2016. Had the carpet tore up and all flooring replaced in 2022. It says 4 bedroom but it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s actually 5. Was remodeled years ago. I don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t have many pictures right now because the tenants are refusing to leave the property but will be out within a week or so per eviction so I will get some then. 918-421-1161 if you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re interested or wanna know anything else.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Metal roof
• Flooring replaced

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• FLOORING REPLACED
• REMODELED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#351 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilburton (town): math 25% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #136 of 270 in OK (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $454 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Latimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $83k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.09%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,125
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 E Blair Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-11%)	3mo	$125,000	$95	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $17,045
• Equity at exit: $34,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $55,019
• Equity at exit: $43,021

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74578

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $937/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $316	+0% $285	+5% $253	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $235	+0% $285	+5% $334	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $313	base $285	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $110,000 Active
17. 2021-12-08
    soldstatus $82,667

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$937
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$414
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilburton
• NCES district ID: 4032790
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $38,345
• Composite: 19.72/100
• National rank: #8718
• State rank: #136 of 270 in OK

Livability — Wilburton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #19035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilburton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,721

Population outlook (Latimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,565 people
• By 2030: 9,029 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 8,084 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 7,283 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,893 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 4,944 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 24% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Latimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.7% · R 82.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+56.7 2012: R+38.3 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.41%
• Current HPI: 176.1285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+33.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $110,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $82,667 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $937 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.