16702 E Forrestal · Conroe, TX 77316

$132,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 740 sqft · Land · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 2,100 sqft lot $180/sqft · 5% below area Est $140k · 5% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

//New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen island
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK IN SHOWER
• GLASS ENCLOSURE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $133k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,939 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,927
• List price: $132,900
• Delta: -5.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,106
• Equity at exit: $19,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,076
• Equity at exit: $11,491

Cash invested: $37,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $132,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,225
• Closing costs: $3,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.61mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	24d	1	0.61mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	43d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,900 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,900 Pending 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,900 Pending 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $132,900 Pending 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $132,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $132,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    //New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

17. 2026-05-04
    price $135,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    //New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $137,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    //New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

19. 2026-04-04
    price $138,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    //New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

20. 2026-02-24
    listed $139,900 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    //New construction// This beautiful single story 2 bedroom 1 bath home features an open floor plan, high ceilings, granite counters, kitchen island, self closing drawers/cabinets, 42" upper cabinets, great walk-in-pantry and stainless steel package. Ample primary bedroom with tray ceiling and large walk-in closet. The bathroom boasts a walk in shower with glass enclosure and vanity with granite counter tops. Living room and bedrooms come with ceiling fans and all floors are wood look ceramic tiling. All these features and amenities at a very affordable price. Subdivision is across from Lake Conroe and all the great shopping, dining and water activities. Home comes with a nice sized fenced backyard, stainless fridge, washer and dryer. Don't miss out on this special special.

21. 2025-04-07
    soldstatus $10,367
22. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,944/yr (+$162/mo · 398.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,444
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$3,866
• Taxable income: $872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1182.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $132,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $135,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $137,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $138,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $10,367 Public Records
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $488 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.