1407 Bradfield St · Bay City, MI 48706

$34,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1920 0.33 ac lot $46/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multiple opportunities await you, and your vision with this property. This home is in need of SIGNIFICANT renovation/foundation repairs, or tear down with three lots available to split and create multiple new constructions or other options as allowed by the city. This home is in need of significant repair and is not mortgageable. CASH ONLY.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.04%
• DSCR: 6.70
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,480
• List price: $34,999
• Delta: -62.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4471 Wilder Ct	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	808 (+5%)	1mo	$45,620	$56	69
502 Keystone St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (+6%)	1mo	$95,000	$117	67
313 McDonald Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+12%)	7mo	$105,000	$122	62
1412 Marchand St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	821 (+7%)	23mo	$155,000	$189	60
409 LaSalle St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (+10%)	16mo	$40,000	$47	38
511 Sidney St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	850 (+11%)	9mo	$110,000	$129	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $60,975
• Equity at exit: $5,218

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.19×
• Total profit: $139,044
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $351

Max offer price $34,999

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,065	-5% $1,056	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,026
Rent	-10% $913	-5% $979	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,112	+10% $1,178
Rate	-1.0pp $1,063	-0.5pp $1,055	base $1,046	+0.5pp $1,037	+1.0pp $1,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,999 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,999 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,999 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,999 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $34,999 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,999 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,999 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,999 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,999 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    price $34,999 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Multiple opportunities await you, and your vision with this property. This home is in need of SIGNIFICANT renovation/foundation repairs, or tear down with three lots available to split and create multiple new constructions or other options as allowed by the city. This home is in need of significant repair and is not mortgageable. CASH ONLY.

19. 2026-02-25
    price $34,999 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Multiple opportunities await you, and your vision with this property. This home is in need of SIGNIFICANT renovation/foundation repairs, or tear down with three lots available to split and create multiple new constructions or other options as allowed by the city. This home is in need of significant repair and is not mortgageable. CASH ONLY.

20. 2025-11-10
    listed $40,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Multiple opportunities await you, and your vision with this property. This home is in need of SIGNIFICANT renovation/foundation repairs, or tear down with three lots available to split and create multiple new constructions or other options as allowed by the city. This home is in need of significant repair and is not mortgageable. CASH ONLY.

21. 2025-11-10
    listed $40,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Multiple opportunities await you, and your vision with this property. This home is in need of SIGNIFICANT renovation/foundation repairs, or tear down with three lots available to split and create multiple new constructions or other options as allowed by the city. This home is in need of significant repair and is not mortgageable. CASH ONLY.

22. 2009-11-04
    soldstatus $48,072

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,960
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $12,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,066
• After-tax cash flow: $9,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-27.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $34,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $34,999 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-10 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-10 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $48,072 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · -24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.