203 Lee Farm Dr · Southbury, CT 06488

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1929 2,613 sqft lot Est $376k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a Little Work, This property can be a summer get away or make it your full time residency. These properties dont come up that often so don't wait. This property has a driveway easement over the Lenape Trail garage lot.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1929

Tags

• LENAPE TRAIL GARAGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Right of way encumbrance/restriction

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking; 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Cesspool sewage system; Oil fuel tank located in the basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Concrete foundation; Beige exterior siding (aluminum); Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot; Water view; Walkable to water; part of a water community with access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil-fired); Oil hot water for domestic use
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer; Laundry located off the kitchen on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,584
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Pine Rock Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+5%)	23mo	$570,000	$559	60
24 Lenape Trl	0.04mi	2/1.0	856 (-12%)	22mo	$332,000	$388	60
76 Lee Farm Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,099 (+14%)	2mo	$350,500	$319	60
38 Mohawk Trl	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+2%)	18mo	$290,000	$295	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,931
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,695
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06488

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,762/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,868

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 223-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,762 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,762
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $3,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 15
• NCES district ID: 0903537
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,697
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #1361
• State rank: #46 of 153 in CT

Livability — Southbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,973

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.35%
• Current HPI: 165.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $220,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $236,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $236,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $239,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-04-16 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-12-09 Price Changed $229,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-10-15 Listed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-08-23 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-04-23 Listed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-06-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-02-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-01-06 Listed $190,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-11-29 Listed $180,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-11-18 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $190,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-07-05 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-04-12 Listed $180,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,762 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.