12228 Tarpon Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1986 $535/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• Private patio
• View of lake
• Box window

Tags

• LIGHT BEIGE CARPETING
• BOX WINDOW
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE PATIO
• VIEW OF LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,132 (public records)
• HOA & community: Part of the Village at Paddock Lake association; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include a clubhouse and common ground; HOA covers clubhouse, grounds maintenance, parking/road maintenance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Adjoins common ground

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($655/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $74,693
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $237,933
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,571/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$535
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $87	+0% $55	+5% $22	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-14	+0% $55	+5% $123	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $84	base $55	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	0.51mi
6431 Brown Fox Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,905	$1.72	24d	1	0.79mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	0.83mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	9d	1	1.35mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,035	$0.96	0d	4	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $535 · $6,420/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2026-05-08
   historical $115,000
4. 2003-09-08
   soldstatus $77,900
5. 1998-04-23
   soldstatus
6. 1997-09-05
   soldstatus $63,000
7. 1994-02-14
   soldstatus
8. 1994-02-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,571
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − HOA: −$6,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+82.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records
• 1998-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,571 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.