138 Gifford Valley Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$245,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1970 4.03 ac lot $284/sqft · 23% below area Est $403k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Open House Saturday 11-1pm. Nestled on a serene and private 4.2-acre wooded lot just moments from Sacandaga Lake, this charming Cape Cod offers a rare opportunity to enjoy the beauty and tranquility of the Adirondacks at an accessible price point. The property includes a valuable 10-foot deeded lake access along Route 30 at the end of Gifford Valley Road, perfect for enjoying the water without the high cost of direct waterfront. The main home features 2+ bedrooms, a functional kitchen, and a cozy living room anchored by a wood-burning fireplace--ideal for chilly mountain evenings--while a unique spiral staircase leads to a second-floor bedroom complemented by a versatile bonus room that can

Key facts

• Separate structure
• Usable outdoor space
• Large shed

Tags

• 10 FOOT DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• SEPARATE STRUCTURE
• LARGE SHED
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 6 vehicles total; Off-street parking and driveway
• Security: Security lights; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area approximately 1,095
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Side porch; Shed(s) and additional storage; Secluded, private, wooded lot; Deeded water access (permit required)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom; Second-level bedroom; Second-level office (can function as bedroom/bonus room)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Carpeted areas
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Wood and carpet flooring; Living room with a wood-burning fireplace; Basement is full and partially finished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Basement utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $195,419 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,416
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -39.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $126,571
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $378,138
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,177/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $225,954

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1666-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $245,000 Active 1666-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,659 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$482/yr (+$40/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,177
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $245,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,177 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.