1009 Walnut St W · Wilson, NC 27893

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 340 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot Est $252k · 33% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An inviting single-story residence which offers 3BR, 2BA, large family room w/ FP and much more. Additional features include, a covered detached building with strong curb appeal thanks to its spacious, well-kept front lawn. The lot is approximately 0.26 acres and is located in the Westover subdivision.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Spacious front lawn
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED DETACHED BUILDING
• SPACIOUS FRONT LAWN
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered, paved parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential zoning; Vinyl siding and frame construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a single-family home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shingle roof; Has a view; Lot dimensions 75 x 150 x 75 x 150

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Gas-log fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-220/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Hearne Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,331 of 1,410 statewide, top 96%, 432 students, 99% FRL); Forest Hills Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 670 students, 99% FRL); James Hunt High (math 67% / reading 58%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 1,069 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 58% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,358 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,030
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1105 Anderson St NW	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+2%)	3mo	$277,500	$167	72
1203 Elizabeth Rd W	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+2%)	6mo	$285,000	$172	70
701 Franklin Ave W	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-11%)	7mo	$235,000	$163	60
1003 Branch St NW	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,802 (+11%)	5mo	$249,900	$139	59
1209 Gold St N	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,540 (-5%)	3mo	$138,500	$90	52
903 Lee St N	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (+5%)	9mo	$165,000	$96	49
1121 Vance St N	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,784 (+10%)	8mo	$304,000	$170	43
302 Raleigh Road Pkwy N	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-9%)	13mo	$161,000	$109	43
711 Woodrow St S	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,445 (-11%)	6mo	$77,000	$53	42
806 Vance St N	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,420 (-13%)	2mo	$112,500	$79	41
185 N Movado Trl	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-13%)	5mo	$279,900	$197	35
1411 Branch St NW	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,865 (+15%)	9mo	$290,000	$155	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,861
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,611
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27893

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,890/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $166,663

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $30	+0% $-18	+5% $-66	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-73	+0% $-18	+5% $37	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $25	base $-18	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 334 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 319 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 318 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 317 DOM
19. 2026-03-28
    price $169,900
20. 2025-07-17
    listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,890 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,890 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,890
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$756
• After-tax cash flow: $537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3705020
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,342
• Composite: 32.64/100
• National rank: #5665
• State rank: #119 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #14674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, NC
• County: Wilson County · 57,967 people
• City population: 57,967
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 38,512
• Household income: $42,810
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2175.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,765 people
• By 2030: 82,492 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 81,054 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 78,610 · -5.0%
• By 2075: 71,865 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 62,792 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+2.9 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+7.3 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.54%
• Current HPI: 211.4136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $169,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $189,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,890 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.